3412 Turtle Creek Rd · Jonesboro, AR 72404

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1993 7,405 sqft lot Est $153k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two story bungalow with a new metal roof in Valley View school district

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1993

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing available: conventional loan, cash, in-house financing

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service (municipal, Entergy); Natural gas; Insulated windows and doors
• Home design: Brick and frame combination exterior
• Construction: Slab foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved road access; Inside city limits; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Slate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (natural gas); Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Formica kitchen countertops; Skylight ceiling; Sheetrock walls and ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.4% in Jonesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley View School District (rural): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #4 of 238 in AR (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Valley View Elementary School (758 students, 33% FRL); Valley View High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #38 of 292 statewide, top 14%, 631 students, 22% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Valley View School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 309 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $155k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,711 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.64%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,416
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3412 Turtle Creek Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,016 (0%)	0mo	$153,000	$151	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,256
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,331
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72404

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,066/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $284	+0% $240	+5% $196	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $180	+0% $240	+5% $301	+10% $361
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $280	base $240	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3205 Turtle Creek Rd Jonesboro, AR	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,400	$1.16	44d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-16
   historical $1,450
2. 2026-05-12
   status Under Contract
3. 2026-05-11
   listed $155,000 New Listing
4. 2026-04-29
   listed $1,450
5. 2026-04-23
   historical $1,450
6. 2026-04-10
   listed $1,450
7. 2025-02-16
   historical $1,400
8. 2025-01-31
   price $1,400
9. 2025-01-30
   listed $1,200
10. 2001-09-05
    soldstatus $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,066 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,066 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,066
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $361
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$87
• After-tax cash flow: $2,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley View School District
• NCES district ID: 0513380
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,148
• Composite: 51.78/100
• National rank: #1672
• State rank: #4 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jonesboro

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #12692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jonesboro, AR
• County: Craighead County · 97,185 people
• City population: 91,245
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,968
• Household income: $70,269
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Craighead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,235 people
• By 2030: 131,338 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 149,862 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 168,034 · +37.5%
• By 2075: 208,094 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 233,251 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 18% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Craighead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.1% · R 67.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.4 2016: R+35.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.22%
• Current HPI: 208.3772
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-98.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Rental Removed $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2026-05-12 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $155,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed for Rent $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-23 Rental Removed $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-16 Rental Removed $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-30 Listed for Rent $1,200 APPFOLIO
• 2001-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,066 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.