18818 Slough Ln SE · McKenna, WA 98597

$275,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1971 5.24 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

What an opportunity to own this manufactured home on over 5 acres! This sale comes with 2 separate parcels. The home itself has been updated and is move-in ready for anyone who may want their own peace on a large property with no HOA. The home has 3 beds, 1 bath, updated flooring and paint, and an updated kitchen with butcher block countertops! This property also comes with the opportunity to rebuild the existing home, to subdivide the land to build multiple homes, or to keep the existing home and build another on the second parcel that this sale comes with. The possibilities are endless for either an end-buyer who is looking to build their forever home, wants to live in the existing home,

Key facts

• Subdivide the land
• Over 5 acres
• Build multiple homes

Tags

• OVER 5 ACRES
• 2 SEPARATE PARCELS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• SUBDIVIDE THE LAND
• BUILD MULTIPLE HOMES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or conventional financing

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV parking
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Electric and propane energy sources; Community water; Septic tank; Propane water heater
• Home design: Manufactured on land (double-wide); One level; Main entry; Updated/remodeled; Has a view
• Construction: Built on lot; manufactured double-wide; Wood construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Effective year built 1971
• Exterior features: Wood products siding; Patio; Partially fenced; Outbuildings; RV parking; Cable TV and high-speed internet available; Fruit trees, garden space, wooded areas; Secluded setting on a dead-end, paved street

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level (possibility for a 4th bedroom)
• Flooring: Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level) with bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood-burning); Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Water heater access panel at back of house

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.8% in McKenna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#300 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Yelm Prairie Elementary (440 students, 53% FRL); Yelm High School 12 (1,634 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 34% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $275k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-16,739
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $42,944
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98597

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,505 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,157/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,093

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $275,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-04-17
    price $275,000
11. 2025-12-11
    listed $299,950 Active
12. 2004-08-05
    soldstatus $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,157 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,695 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,538/yr (+$128/mo · 132.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,157
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,405
• − Management: −$2,405
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$165
• After-tax cash flow: $4,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yelm School District
• NCES district ID: 5310140
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,328
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #4685
• State rank: #108 of 291 in WA

Livability — McKenna

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #10587

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 61
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,669
• Household income: $92,219
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.07%
• Current HPI: 326.4361
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+375.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $275,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Listed $299,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,157 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.