1047 14th · Thermalito, CA 95965

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 64 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition Est $27k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully upgraded mobile home is situated in a charming 55+ community at the edge of town. It features fresh paint and new appliances! With two bedrooms and one bathroom, the home includes a covered parking spot, a shed, and a fenced yard. Enjoy relaxing on the comfortable deck, which is perfect for setting up an outdoor dining area. Come see this lovely home to see if it could be your forever home! Agent Remarks : Vacant. Go direct and show. Please text for the code. The lockbox is located at the gas/water meter near the back door. Buyer is responsible for independently verifying all findings and conducting due diligence, including city and county investigations, to their full sati

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Fenced yard
• Upgraded mobile home

Tags

• UPGRADED MOBILE HOME
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW APPLIANCES
• COVERED PARKING SPOT
• FENCED YARD
• COMFORTABLE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: public records; Assessments: unknown
• Financial info: Land lease: $774.89 monthly (park); Rent includes trash, water, sewer
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community amenities: hiking, fishing, lake; Park name: CHATEAU MH ESTATES; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Located in CHATEAU MH ESTATES park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water; Natural gas connected; Propane available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level: 1; Mobile home model 1857 (12' x 56') — mobile home remains; Facing: Oro Dam (entry location)
• Construction: Raised foundation; Year built: public records
• Exterior features: Front and rear porches; Yard; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas range; Gas oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Upgraded shower
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Formica counters; Updated/Remodeled condition; Remodeled kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.2% vs local median 3.6% in Thermalito — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,221 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, crime F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.56%
• DSCR: 5.12
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $26,880
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1047 14th	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	0mo	$35,000	$52	100
1047 14th St #18	0.03mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	0mo	$35,000	$52	98
1023 14th St Unit 17A	0.00mi	2/2.0	720 (+7%)	2mo	$15,500	$22	82
1047 14th St #3	0.03mi	2/1.0	687 (+2%)	22mo	$11,500	$17	76
1047 14th St #10	0.03mi	3/1.5 (+1)	768 (+14%)	8mo	$31,000	$40	61
1047 14th St #1	0.03mi	2/2.0	600 (-11%)	22mo	$18,750	$31	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $41,083
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.41×
• Total profit: $92,197
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95965

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $780	-5% $768	+0% $756	+5% $744	+10% $732
Rent	-10% $656	-5% $706	+0% $756	+5% $806	+10% $856
Rate	-1.0pp $774	-0.5pp $765	base $756	+0.5pp $747	+1.0pp $738

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $35,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $35,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $35,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-04-09
    listed $35,000 Active
11. 2023-06-30
    historical
12. 2023-04-12
    price $26,500
13. 2023-02-22
    status Active
14. 2023-02-06
    status Active
15. 2023-01-01
    status Active
16. 2022-12-01
    status Active
17. 2022-10-01
    status Active
18. 2022-07-21
    listed $29,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $9,052
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,173
• After-tax cash flow: $6,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully upgraded mobile home in a charming 55+ community is move-in ready with fresh paint, new appliances, and a well-maintained exterior. It offers two bedrooms, one bathroom, and a covered parking spot, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace shed — Improves storage and adds value
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace shed — Improves storage and adds value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Thermalito

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1221
• US rank: #26164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thermalito, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,181
• Household income: $53,198
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.76%
• Current HPI: 317.0277
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+17.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $35,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-04-12 Price Changed $26,500 CRMLS
• 2023-02-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-02-06 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-01-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-12-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-10-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-07-21 Listed $29,900 CRMLS