11487 Jennings Rd · North Collins, NY 14091

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1970 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rustic & Peaceful!! This spacious home features living room with wood burning stove (NRTC) & slider leading to the fully fenced backyard & French doors leading to family room (currently used as a bedroom), remodeled eat-in, fully equipped kitchen with stainless steel appliances & granite counter tops, first floor laundry, 2 bedrooms and full bath on first floor, stairs lead to loft with French doors to the primary suite with walk in closet & private bathroom. Septic system installed in 2006, well has a clorified system (water shed), & metal roof!

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Fenced in backyard
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• TONGUE AND GROOVE PANELING
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing/resale condition (fixer)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular, rural lot (approx. 0.459 acres, 100x200)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Wood heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Den; Eat-in kitchen; Laundry on the main level; Crawl space basement; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#802 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Collins Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #589 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $158,998 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.39%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $101,132
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $291,074
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14091

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,913/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,420

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $170,000 Active
16. 2025-08-07
    listed $184,900 Active
17. 2023-08-29
    soldstatus $170,000
18. 2023-06-13
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed Sale or Rented 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Rustic & Peaceful!! This spacious home features living room with wood burning stove (NRTC) & slider leading to the fully fenced backyard & French doors leading to family room (currently used as a bedroom), remodeled eat-in, fully equipped kitchen with stainless steel appliances & granite counter tops, first floor laundry, 2 bedrooms and full bath on first floor, stairs lead to loft with French doors to the primary suite with walk in closet & private bathroom. Septic system installed in 2006, well has a clorified system (water shed), & metal roof!

19. 2023-05-01
    status Pending Sale 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Rustic & Peaceful!! This spacious home features living room with wood burning stove (NRTC) & slider leading to the fully fenced backyard & French doors leading to family room (currently used as a bedroom), remodeled eat-in, fully equipped kitchen with stainless steel appliances & granite counter tops, first floor laundry, 2 bedrooms and full bath on first floor, stairs lead to loft with French doors to the primary suite with walk in closet & private bathroom. Septic system installed in 2006, well has a clorified system (water shed), & metal roof!

20. 2023-04-27
    price $165,000 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Rustic & Peaceful!! This spacious home features living room with wood burning stove (NRTC) & slider leading to the fully fenced backyard & French doors leading to family room (currently used as a bedroom), remodeled eat-in, fully equipped kitchen with stainless steel appliances & granite counter tops, first floor laundry, 2 bedrooms and full bath on first floor, stairs lead to loft with French doors to the primary suite with walk in closet & private bathroom. Septic system installed in 2006, well has a clorified system (water shed), & metal roof!

21. 2023-04-16
    listed $175,000 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Rustic & Peaceful!! This spacious home features living room with wood burning stove (NRTC) & slider leading to the fully fenced backyard & French doors leading to family room (currently used as a bedroom), remodeled eat-in, fully equipped kitchen with stainless steel appliances & granite counter tops, first floor laundry, 2 bedrooms and full bath on first floor, stairs lead to loft with French doors to the primary suite with walk in closet & private bathroom. Septic system installed in 2006, well has a clorified system (water shed), & metal roof!

22. 2006-01-03
    soldstatus $83,740

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,913 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,393 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$480/yr (+$40/mo · 25.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,913
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$289
• After-tax cash flow: $1,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Collins Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,886
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #8071
• State rank: #589 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Collins

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #802
• US rank: #15516

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,402

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Two or more races 21% Native American 15% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.84%
• Current HPI: 584.8628
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+103.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $170,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $184,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-13 Sold (MLS) $170,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-05-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-04-27 Price Changed $165,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-04-16 Listed $175,000 WNYREIS
• 2006-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $83,740 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,913 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.