1803 Ripple Creek Dr · Missouri City, TX 77489

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1980 8,986 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $235k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1803 Ripple Creek Drive, a 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-story home located on a spacious corner lot in the established Quail Green West community of Missouri City. This home offers approximately 1,837 square feet of living space, a traditional floor plan, and an attached 2-car garage. The property features a large living area, dining space, kitchen, fireplace, and a generous primary bedroom. Conveniently located with easy access to Highway 90, Texas Parkway, Beltway 8, HCC Southwest College, the Texas Medical Center, shopping, dining, and other area amenities. The large corner lot provides good outdoor space.

Key facts

• Large living area
• Corner lot
• 8,986 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• QUAIL GREEN WEST COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 90
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• GENEROUS PRIMARY BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Quail Green West HOA with an annual fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Single-story (first-floor living areas listed)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 16 x 17); Additional bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: E A Jones El (math 14% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 479 students, 86% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 35% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $316 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,970 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,844
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 6.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1916 Woodland Hills Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+2%)	5mo	$225,000	$121	85
1927 Woodland Hills Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,014 (+10%)	10mo	$260,000	$129	65
2036 Woodland Hills Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,731 (-6%)	4mo	$259,999	$150	64
2046 Grand Park Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,722 (-6%)	10mo	$272,500	$158	63
1922 Lauren Pl	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,966 (+7%)	6mo	$299,999	$153	62
2106 Whirlaway Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,744 (-5%)	12mo	$275,000	$158	56
1510 Ashmore Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,925 (+5%)	12mo	$300,000	$156	52
1410 Gentle Bend Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-11%)	1mo	$244,900	$150	51
1223 Gentle Bend Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,693 (-8%)	3mo	$249,900	$148	48
1222 New Tree Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,644 (-10%)	3mo	$169,900	$103	44
2407 Albany Ter	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-8%)	8mo	$289,000	$172	44
1402 Blue Diamond Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-13%)	11mo	$268,000	$167	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-29,917
• Equity at exit: $59,201

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,274
• Equity at exit: $66,437

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$568 /mo · $6,820/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,363

Max offer price $190,970

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-129	+0% $-193	+5% $-256	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-276	+0% $-193	+5% $-109	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-135	base $-193	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	0.31mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	0.33mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	14d	1	0.75mi
2222 Mountshire Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,700	$1.19	22d	1	1.01mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	45d	1	1.19mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	22d	1	1.21mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	1.22mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	1.36mi
507 Whippoorwill Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1970	$1,925	$0.98	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 623-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $225,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-05-17
   historical $1,900
4. 2026-05-16
   historical
5. 2026-04-14
   listed $249,000 Active
6. 2026-03-29
   price $1,900
7. 2026-01-21
   listed $1,950
8. 2023-11-13
   historical
9. 2023-11-11
   historical $1,900
10. 2023-11-07
    listed $1,900
11. 2023-11-06
    listed $245,000 Active
12. 2022-10-14
    historical
13. 2022-10-03
    status Active
14. 2022-09-27
    status Option Pending
15. 2022-09-12
    listed $235,000 Active
16. 2022-04-25
    status Pending
17. 2022-04-13
    status Option Pending
18. 2022-04-13
    historical
19. 2022-04-09
    price $215,000
20. 2022-04-03
    price $225,000
21. 2022-04-02
    listed $220,000 Active
22. 2016-02-04
    soldstatus
23. 2016-02-02
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2015-12-18
    status Pending
25. 2015-12-15
    status Option Pending
26. 2015-12-10
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,820 · $568/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,820 · $568/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$6,820
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $-864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+95.7% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed for Rent $1,950 HARMLS
• 2023-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-11 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2023-11-06 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-10-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-09-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-12 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-04-09 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-03 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-02 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2016-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-12-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-12-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-12-10 Listed $115,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,820 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.