26 Rays Rd · Warrensburg, NY 12885

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 270 Days on market

Built 1950 0.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy single-story home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering easy living on one level. Highlights include a sunny 3-season enclosed porch, a dedicated laundry room for daily convenience, and a welcoming front deck perfect for outdoor moments. Two sheds provide abundant storage and workshop space, while the interior offers practical comfort for families and buyers seeking a warm, inviting home. Cash, as-is.

Key facts

• Welcoming front deck
• Two sheds
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• 3 SEASON ENCLOSED PORCH
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• WELCOMING FRONT DECK
• TWO SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.6% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#823 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Warrensburg Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #552 of 755 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $140k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.69%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $90,143
• Equity at exit: $126,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.49×
• Total profit: $254,491
• Equity at exit: $271,989

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12885

• Home prices YoY: 19.6%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,410/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 270 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 269 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 268 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 264 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 261 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 260 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 259 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 258 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 253 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 252 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    status Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Cozy single-story home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering easy living on one level. Highlights include a sunny 3-season enclosed porch, a dedicated laundry room for daily convenience, and a welcoming front deck perfect for outdoor moments. Two sheds provide abundant storage and workshop space, while the interior offers practical comfort for families and buyers seeking a warm, inviting home. Cash, as-is.

16. 2026-04-28
    historical Contingent 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Cozy single-story home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering easy living on one level. Highlights include a sunny 3-season enclosed porch, a dedicated laundry room for daily convenience, and a welcoming front deck perfect for outdoor moments. Two sheds provide abundant storage and workshop space, while the interior offers practical comfort for families and buyers seeking a warm, inviting home. Cash, as-is.

17. 2026-04-24
    status Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Cozy single-story home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering easy living on one level. Highlights include a sunny 3-season enclosed porch, a dedicated laundry room for daily convenience, and a welcoming front deck perfect for outdoor moments. Two sheds provide abundant storage and workshop space, while the interior offers practical comfort for families and buyers seeking a warm, inviting home. Cash, as-is.

18. 2025-12-25
    historical Contingent 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Cozy single-story home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering easy living on one level. Highlights include a sunny 3-season enclosed porch, a dedicated laundry room for daily convenience, and a welcoming front deck perfect for outdoor moments. Two sheds provide abundant storage and workshop space, while the interior offers practical comfort for families and buyers seeking a warm, inviting home. Cash, as-is.

19. 2025-11-10
    price $140,000 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Cozy single-story home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering easy living on one level. Highlights include a sunny 3-season enclosed porch, a dedicated laundry room for daily convenience, and a welcoming front deck perfect for outdoor moments. Two sheds provide abundant storage and workshop space, while the interior offers practical comfort for families and buyers seeking a warm, inviting home. Cash, as-is.

20. 2025-10-12
    price $160,000 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Cozy single-story home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering easy living on one level. Highlights include a sunny 3-season enclosed porch, a dedicated laundry room for daily convenience, and a welcoming front deck perfect for outdoor moments. Two sheds provide abundant storage and workshop space, while the interior offers practical comfort for families and buyers seeking a warm, inviting home. Cash, as-is.

21. 2025-09-21
    listed $180,000 Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Cozy single-story home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering easy living on one level. Highlights include a sunny 3-season enclosed porch, a dedicated laundry room for daily convenience, and a welcoming front deck perfect for outdoor moments. Two sheds provide abundant storage and workshop space, while the interior offers practical comfort for families and buyers seeking a warm, inviting home. Cash, as-is.

22. 2024-07-25
    status Active
23. 2024-06-16
    status Pending
24. 2024-06-16
    historical
25. 2024-06-14
    listed $174,900 Active
26. 2020-11-20
    soldstatus $64,000 Closed (Final Sale)
27. 2020-10-29
    status Pend (Under Cntr)
28. 2020-06-17
    listed $79,900 New
29. 2019-06-21
    soldstatus $60,000
30. 2019-03-11
    listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,410 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,888 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$478/yr (+$40/mo · 33.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,410
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $373
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$89
• After-tax cash flow: $2,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrensburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629910
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,828
• Composite: 41.15/100
• National rank: #7424
• State rank: #552 of 755 in NY

Livability — Warrensburg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #823
• US rank: #15925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,531

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 60.30%
• Current HPI: 368.3803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+115.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-12-25 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $140,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $160,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-21 Listed $180,000 Global MLS
• 2024-07-25 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2024-06-16 Pending — Global MLS
• 2024-06-16 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2024-06-14 Listed $174,900 Global MLS
• 2020-11-20 Sold (MLS) $64,000 Global MLS
• 2020-10-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2020-06-17 Listed $79,900 Global MLS
• 2019-06-21 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Global MLS
• 2019-03-11 Listed $64,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,410 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.