5895 Spivey Run Rd · Suffolk, VA 23438

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2001 8.64 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sitting on 8.64 acres, this cozy ranch style home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,344 square feet. Enjoy easy one-level living, and all the peace and quiet you’ve been dreaming of. Outside, there’s plenty of nature to enjoy, including creek trails on the property, and deer & wild turkey if you enjoy hunting. While being tucked back from the world, this property is still just a short drive to stores, dining, and all of the daily conveniences. This home is ready for you to make it your own with strong bones and great potential! Community water has been disconnected, so property needs a deep well installed. Property being sold as-is. Seller to make no repairs. Call or

Key facts

• 8.64 acres
• Great potential
• Creek trails

Tags

• 8.64 ACRES
• CREEK TRAILS
• SHORT DRIVE TO STORES
• GREAT POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fixer upper
• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Multi-car parking (3–4 spaces)
• Utilities: Electric water heater; Septic sewer; Well water; Electric power
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Ranch style; Single-story (1 living level); Simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Detached workshop
• Exterior features: Horses allowed; Well water; Wooded setting; Marsh and creek/stream views; On waterfront (canal/creek/marsh/stream)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom with full bathroom (first floor master); Master bedroom with ensuite; Additional bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Pull-down attic stairs; Attic access; Porch; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oakland Elementary (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 469 students, 64% FRL); Forest Glen Middle (math 39% / reading 67%, grade C+, #213 of 342 statewide, top 63%, 426 students, 63% FRL); Lakeland High (math 33% / reading 77%, grade C, #279 of 319 statewide, top 88%, 1,083 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $375k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,998 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-40,701
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-9,785
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23438

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,345/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,040

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $422	+0% $316	+5% $210	+10% $104
Rent	-10% $44	-5% $180	+0% $316	+5% $452	+10% $588
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $411	base $316	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $375,000 Active 724-char remark
15. 2005-06-13
    soldstatus $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,345 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,345 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$3,345
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,302
• − Management: −$3,302
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$2,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$590
• After-tax cash flow: $4,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suffolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103710
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,573
• Composite: 48.31/100
• National rank: #2151
• State rank: #72 of 131 in VA

Livability — Suffolk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #2896

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Suffolk, VA
• City population: 88,108
• Population (ZIP): 1,620

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,269 people
• By 2030: 98,269 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 103,177 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 105,777 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 110,963 · +16.5%
• By 2100: 103,711 · +8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: D (+15.9) · D 57.4% · R 41.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.9 2020: D+17.3 2016: D+13.8 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.36%
• Current HPI: 160.6199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $375,000 REINMLS
• 2005-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,345 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.