6413 123rd Ave SE #32 · Snohomish, WA 98290

$87,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1974 $104/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller offering $10,000 credit for CC. Water and sewer are included in the space rent—no extra utility hassles! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a comfortable, spacious layout and a welcoming feel throughout. Enjoy a covered deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining year-round, plus a large fenced lot ideal for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities. Located in an all-ages community with easy access to Highway 9 and Highway 2, just minutes from downtown Snohomish, Monroe, and Lake Stevens. Plenty of parking available. Come see why so many love calling Circle H Mobile Home Park home—welcome home!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Minutes from monroe
• Large fenced lot

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• LARGE FENCED LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 9
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 2
• MINUTES FROM MONROE
• MINUTES FROM LAKE STEVENS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 2.3% in Snohomish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#120 in WA, #2,426 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Snohomish School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #25 of 291 in WA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $88k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $77,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.17%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,688
• List price: $87,500
• Delta: -73.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $64,199
• Equity at exit: $13,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.80×
• Total profit: $191,220
• Equity at exit: $7,565

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98290

• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $217/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $650

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,500 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,500 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,500 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,500 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,500 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,500 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,500 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $87,500 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $87,500 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,500 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,500 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $87,500 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,500 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-10
    status Active
15. 2026-05-04
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-15
    status Active
17. 2026-04-15
    price $87,500
18. 2026-04-08
    status Pending
19. 2026-02-19
    price $115,000
20. 2026-01-08
    listed $125,000 Active
21. 2000-05-01
    soldstatus $25,000
22. 2000-01-23
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $217 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $858 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$641/yr (+$53/mo · 295.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$217
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $12,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,890
• After-tax cash flow: $9,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snohomish School District
• NCES district ID: 5308020
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $89,715
• Composite: 59.21/100
• National rank: #1934
• State rank: #25 of 291 in WA

Livability — Snohomish

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #2426

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 39,826
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 39,826
• Household income: $132,973
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -751.01%
• Current HPI: 338.6319
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.82%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $87,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-01 Sold (MLS) $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-23 Listed $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $217 · +69.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.