402 W Harper St · Poplar Bluff, MO 63901

$20,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Other public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1948 8,712 sqft lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom property includes a 4th non-conforming room that works perfectly as an office or bonus space. Located on a spacious corner lot, the home offers original hardwood floors and a well-built structure ready for updates. With good bones and flexible layout options, this property is ideal for an investor, renovation project, or buyer seeking sweat equity.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1948
• Listed 151 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220-volt electric service; Natural gas available; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Corner lot; City lot; Gentle sloping yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: One-level living; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $870 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 58.5% vs local median 4.4% in Poplar Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#143 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Poplar Bluff R-I (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #127 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Road Elem. (math 48% / reading 55%, grade C-, #268 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 305 students, 99% FRL); Poplar Bluff Middle School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 1,018 students, 74% FRL); Poplar Bluff High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 1,504 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 58.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 186.34%
• DSCR: 9.29
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.32×
• Total profit: $52,164
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.86×
• Total profit: $116,820
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63901

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $301/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $870

Break-even live

Break-even rent $175

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $881	-5% $875	+0% $870	+5% $864	+10% $858
Rent	-10% $769	-5% $819	+0% $870	+5% $920	+10% $970
Rate	-1.0pp $880	-0.5pp $875	base $870	+0.5pp $864	+1.0pp $859

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $20,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $20,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $20,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $20,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $20,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2026-02-24
    price $59,999
18. 2026-01-21
    listed $75,000 Active
19. 2026-01-11
    historical $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $301 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $301 · $25/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$301
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $10,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,582
• After-tax cash flow: $7,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poplar Bluff R-I
• NCES district ID: 2925450
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,761
• Composite: 35.17/100
• National rank: #5001
• State rank: #127 of 324 in MO

Livability — Poplar Bluff

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #8135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar Bluff, MO
• City population: 34,920
• Population (ZIP): 34,920

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,648 people
• By 2030: 42,329 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 41,498 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 40,308 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 36,168 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 28,893 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.7% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.3 2016: R+61.6 2012: R+46.7 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.64%
• Current HPI: 175.3008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $59,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Coming Soon $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $301 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.