37110 Highland Bluff Cir · Dade City, FL 33523

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 2005 0.27 ac lot Est $363k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This home was built in 2005 and is located just minutes from historic downtown Dade City. Tucked away in the quiet, 28-home community of Highlands II, this property sits on a spacious quarter-acre lot and offers 1,752 square feet of living space. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features an open floor plan with high ceilings and unique concrete flooring. The generous kitchen is designed for entertaining, featuring large countertops, a walk-in pantry, a long bar-top, and a breakfast nook. All kitchen appliances are included. The living area is highlighted by contemporary fixtures, custom woodwork walls, and an upgraded ceiling fan. The primary suite includes an en suite bathroom with a walk-i

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Generous kitchen
• Historic downtown

Tags

• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UNIQUE CONCRETE FLOORING
• GENEROUS KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,752 (source: public records); Total building area approximately 2,405 (source: public records)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Homestead declared
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on an approximate 0.27-acre lot
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Oversized lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Concrete; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rodney B. Cox Elementary School (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,080 of 2,144 statewide, top 97%, 428 students, 97% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $275k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,170 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.58%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,664
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37420 Magnolia Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,763 (+1%)	3mo	$279,900	$159	79
37118 Highland Bluff Cir	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+3%)	21mo	$315,000	$175	77
37136 Meridian Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,830 (+4%)	6mo	$415,000	$227	76
37284 Main Ave	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,823 (+4%)	7mo	$399,900	$219	73
36918 Virginia Ave	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,704 (-3%)	20mo	$250,000	$147	64
37149 Meridian Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-9%)	15mo	$233,000	$146	62
36941 Blanton Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-2%)	13mo	$356,000	$207	56
37152 Howard Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (+7%)	7mo	$330,000	$176	56
36630 Jefferson Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-6%)	20mo	$390,000	$236	53
14251 13th St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,525 (-13%)	4mo	$425,000	$279	51
37718 Mcminn Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,908 (+9%)	1mo	$360,000	$189	49
36639 Jefferson Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	15mo	$420,000	$273	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $126,955
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $391,775
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,360/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,325

Max offer price $211,743

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-202	-5% $-280	+0% $-358	+5% $-436	+10% $-514
Rent	-10% $-506	-5% $-432	+0% $-358	+5% $-284	+10% $-210
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-288	base $-358	+0.5pp $-429	+1.0pp $-502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	6d	1	0.54mi
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	5d	1	0.54mi
37802 Whitehouse Ave Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,150	$0.86	25d	1	0.74mi
14907 Lucca Way Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	26d	1	0.97mi
13576 Whiskey Daisy Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2238	$2,500	$1.12	1d	1	1.02mi
36111 Canelli Way Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,295	$1.14	4d	1	1.06mi
37848 Bougainvillea Ave Unit The Carriage House Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	2000	$2,800	$1.40	23d	1	1.12mi
36350 Spanish Rose Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,149	$1.18	6d	1	1.15mi
13917 2nd St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,950	$1.49	26d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-02-25
    price $275,000
11. 2026-02-16
    price $290,000
12. 2026-01-16
    listed $300,000 Active
13. 2025-06-05
    historical
14. 2025-05-12
    price $289,900
15. 2025-05-02
    status Active
16. 2025-05-01
    historical
17. 2025-05-01
    listed $299,900 Active
18. 2023-04-06
    historical
19. 2023-02-27
    listed $289,900 Active
20. 2018-04-26
    soldstatus $178,000
21. 2018-04-25
    soldstatus $178,000 Sold
22. 2018-04-11
    status Pending
23. 2018-03-25
    status Pending
24. 2018-03-05
    listed $178,000 Active
25. 2010-11-30
    soldstatus $117,000
26. 2010-09-22
    listed $113,800
27. 2006-08-10
    listed $239,500
28. 2006-06-28
    historical
29. 2006-04-06
    listed $259,000
30. 2006-04-05
    historical
31. 2006-01-07
    listed $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,360 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,360 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,360
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$9,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,225
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• City population: 21,077
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-27 Listed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-25 Sold (MLS) $178,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-05 Listed $178,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-30 Sold (MLS) $117,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-22 Listed $113,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-10 Listed $239,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-06 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-07 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,360 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.