206 Ensemble Blvd · Perry, GA 31069

$279,985

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $154/sqft · 14% below area Est $324k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first floor, offering a serene retreat with a full bathroom and generous walk-in closet, while an open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space. On the second floor, two additional bedrooms surround a versatile loft.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• VERSATILE LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-473 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#149 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Macon County (town): math 5% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #169 of 174 in GA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Macon County Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,092 of 1,228 statewide, top 91%, 511 students, 100% FRL); Macon County Middle School (math 6% / reading 18%, grade F, #417 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 263 students, 100% FRL); Macon County High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #394 of 424 statewide, top 97%, 340 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 78% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 571 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,013 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.24%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,820
• List price: $279,985
• Delta: -13.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
630 Toomer Rd	0.96mi	4/2.0	1,924 (+6%)	48mo	$298,185	$155	33
411 Doe Run Rd	2.05mi	4/2.0	1,584 (-13%)	51mo	$95,000	$60	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-75,487
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-104,436
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,396 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active
• Median asking: $278,000 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 70% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31069

• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $211,496

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-280	-5% $-377	+0% $-473	+5% $-570	+10% $-667
Rent	-10% $-619	-5% $-546	+0% $-473	+5% $-400	+10% $-327
Rate	-1.0pp $-332	-0.5pp $-402	base $-473	+0.5pp $-546	+1.0pp $-620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,996
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $279,985 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   price $279,985 330-char remark
3. 2026-04-25
   price $269,985 330-char remark
4. 2026-04-19
   listed $264,985 Active 330-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$10,779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,587
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a luxurious owner's suite and an open-concept floorplan, making it an attractive property for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Interior staging — Can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 9/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Macon County Elementary School F GA #1,092/1,228 Nat'l #39,071/41,679 Middle Macon County Middle School F GA #417/470 Nat'l #13,125/14,009 High Macon County High School F GA #394/424 Nat'l #16,861/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Macon County
• NCES district ID: 1303450
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $29,832
• Composite: 7.25/100
• National rank: #9957
• State rank: #169 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Perry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #9757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Houston County · 12,210 people
• City population: 22,953
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,953
• Household income: $74,501
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,210 people
• By 2030: 11,442 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 9,901 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 8,575 · -29.8%
• By 2075: 6,047 · -50.5%
• By 2100: 4,043 · -66.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: D (+17.9) · D 58.8% · R 40.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: 30.9pp · 2024: 17.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.9 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+27.2 2012: D+34.8 2008: D+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.01%
• Current HPI: 240.9327
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B