123 Kelly Ct · Reno, TX 76020

$254,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Land · 139 Days on market

Built 2025 0.34 ac lot $171/sqft · 39% above area Est $184k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a 0.34-acre lot outside the city limits, this new 2025 home offers open space and a relaxed country setting in Azle’s Timbercreek Valley. The home at 123 Kelly Ct. features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a practical layout designed for everyday living. The main living area opens directly to the kitchen, dining area, and den, creating a connected flow that works well for both daily routines and gatherings. The kitchen features built-in cabinets for extra storage, a functional island with plenty of counter space, making cooking and entertaining a breeze. The den provides flexible space for a home office, second living area, or hobby room. The laundry room is generously sized, perfect for storage and daily tasks. With Low-E windows, the home stays cozy in winter and cool in summer. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy a covered front porch and open yard ideal for outdoor activities, pets, or taking in wide Texas skies. Covered parking is provided by a 20' × 20' carport, perfect for your cars and trucks. This property offers country-style living with no HOA rules, plenty of space, and easy access to nearby amenities. The home is backed by a 1-year manufacturer’s warranty. Schedule your showing today to see all this home has to offer.

Key facts

• Flexible space
• Open space
• Country setting

Tags

• 0.34 ACRE LOT
• COUNTRY SETTING
• OPEN SPACE
• BUILT-IN CABINETS
• FUNCTIONAL ISLAND
• FLEXIBLE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-954/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.0% in Reno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,131 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springtown ISD (town): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $212,996 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.34%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,646
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: 38.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-47,819
• Equity at exit: $38,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-53,973
• Equity at exit: $22,047

Cash invested: $71,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $243,486

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,748
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,990 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,990 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,990 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-02-24
    price $254,990 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Situated on a 0.34-acre lot outside the city limits, this new 2025 home offers open space and a relaxed country setting in Azle’s Timbercreek Valley. The home at 123 Kelly Ct. features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a practical layout designed for everyday living. The main living area opens directly to the kitchen, dining area, and den, creating a connected flow that works well for both daily routines and gatherings. The kitchen features built-in cabinets for extra storage, a functional island with plenty of counter space, making cooking and entertaining a breeze. The den provides flexible space for a home office, second living area, or hobby room. The laundry room is generously sized, perfect for storage and daily tasks. With Low-E windows, the home stays cozy in winter and cool in summer. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy a covered front porch and open yard ideal for outdoor activities, pets, or taking in wide Texas skies. Covered parking is provided by a 20' × 20' carport, perfect for your cars and trucks. This property offers country-style living with no HOA rules, plenty of space, and easy access to nearby amenities. The home is backed by a 1-year manufacturer’s warranty. Schedule your showing today to see all this home has to offer.

16. 2026-02-02
    historical
17. 2026-01-30
    listed $259,990 Active 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Situated on a 0.34-acre lot outside the city limits, this new 2025 home offers open space and a relaxed country setting in Azle’s Timbercreek Valley. The home at 123 Kelly Ct. features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a practical layout designed for everyday living. The main living area opens directly to the kitchen, dining area, and den, creating a connected flow that works well for both daily routines and gatherings. The kitchen features built-in cabinets for extra storage, a functional island with plenty of counter space, making cooking and entertaining a breeze. The den provides flexible space for a home office, second living area, or hobby room. The laundry room is generously sized, perfect for storage and daily tasks. With Low-E windows, the home stays cozy in winter and cool in summer. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy a covered front porch and open yard ideal for outdoor activities, pets, or taking in wide Texas skies. Covered parking is provided by a 20' × 20' carport, perfect for your cars and trucks. This property offers country-style living with no HOA rules, plenty of space, and easy access to nearby amenities. The home is backed by a 1-year manufacturer’s warranty. Schedule your showing today to see all this home has to offer.

18. 2025-10-25
    listed $269,990 Active
19. 2025-09-23
    historical
20. 2025-05-01
    listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,283
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springtown ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,136
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5474
• State rank: #435 of 826 in TX

Livability — Reno

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1131
• US rank: #20008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+269.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $254,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $259,990 NTREIS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $269,990 NTREIS
• 2025-09-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $69,000 NTREIS