Is 188 Gali Way in Napa, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 2.3% cap rate and $-2,811/mo modeled cash flow at a $839,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 188 Gali Way?

The modeled cap rate is 2.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $4,112/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 30.17

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +12.8/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +4.0/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Cash flow +2.8/30.0
Rent growth +2.4/5.0
1% rule +0.0/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$839,990

188 Gali Way · Napa, CA 94558

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,080 sqft lot Garage $363/sqft · 12% below area Est $951k · 12% under $255/mo HOA · 6% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Discover the Perfect Blend of Urban Convenience and Serene Natural Beauty! Welcome to this brand-new of a Foundry Residence 2 home, an innovative three-story single family home that effortlessly combines modern living with a sense of space and tranquility. Nestled within the vibrant RiverSound community, this home offers an exceptional floor plan designed for both comfort and style. Step inside to find an airy, open-concept layout, creating a seamless flow throughout. The backyard is the a lovely setting for outdoor living, while the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

Primary suite
Flexible layout
Riversound community

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $840k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $433k (48.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $411k (51.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $411k (51.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Phillips Elementary (381 students, 86% FRL); Silverado Middle (868 students, 77% FRL); Napa High (1,762 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 767 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($815k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $411,222 (51.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.49% ✗
Cap rate: 2.28%
Cash-on-cash: -14.34%
DSCR: 0.36
GRM: 17.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $951,055
List price: $839,990
Delta: -11.68%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Compass Dr	0.11mi	4/3.5	2,311 (0%)	10mo	$869,361	$376	87
156 Compass Dr	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,138 (-8%)	10mo	$818,120	$383	76
325 Sagebrush Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,340 (+1%)	21mo	$1,003,458	$429	75
342 Sagebrush Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	3mo	$884,256	$346	75
347 Cordelia Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	9mo	$954,247	$373	68
315 Flagship Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,598 (+12%)	12mo	$959,000	$369	65
319 Flagship Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	15mo	$899,430	$351	65
307 Flagship Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	22mo	$928,320	$363	60
309 Sagebrush Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	22mo	$1,007,790	$394	60
106 Compass Dr	0.11mi	3/4.5 (-1)	2,600 (+12%)	10mo	$785,309	$302	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -46.9%
Equity multiple: -0.39×
Total profit: $-327,002
Equity at exit: $125,245

10-year hold

IRR: —
Equity multiple: -1.39×
Total profit: $-560,993
Equity at exit: $72,627

Cash invested: $235,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 30 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply: 180.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $899,990 ($351/sqft)
Median days on market: 30 d
This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +17.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 94558

Rents YoY: -0.5%
Active inventory: 767
Price-to-rent: 17.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $4,112 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$4,405
Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,050 /mo · $12,600/yr
Insurance: −$350
HOA: −$255
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$864
Net cashflow: $-2,811

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,671

Max offer price $433,188

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,231	-5% $-2,521	+0% $-2,811	+5% $-3,102	+10% $-3,392
Rent	-10% $-3,136	-5% $-2,974	+0% $-2,811	+5% $-2,649	+10% $-2,486
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,388	-0.5pp $-2,598	base $-2,811	+0.5pp $-3,029	+1.0pp $-3,250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $209,998
Closing costs: $25,200
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
169 Splittail Way Napa, CA	4.0	4.0	2311	$4,800	$2.08	6d	1	0.07mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee (call listing agent for association name/details)Association amenities include greenbelt, playground, BBQ area, park, picnic area, trails, and proximity to a golf courseAssociation fee covers common area maintenance and grounds maintenance

Exterior

Parking: Attached enclosed garage with interior access2 covered/garage spacesSide-by-side layout with garage door opener
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerNatural gas connectedIndividual electric meterCable and internet availablePhotovoltaics present (seller owned and third-party owned options)
Home design: New construction single-family residenceFoundry Residence 2 model2026 constructionSlab foundation
Construction: Brick, stone, stucco and cement siding exteriorSlab foundation
Exterior features: Covered deck/patioFenced yardLevel lot

Interior

Kitchen: Stone/solid surface countersKitchen islandGas range / cooktopSelf-cleaning ovenDishwasherMicrowaveDisposalIce maker hookupPantryEat-in kitchen/breakfast nook
Bedrooms: Main entry level includes 1 bedroom
Flooring: TileVinylCarpet
Bathrooms: 4 total bathrooms (3 full, 1 half)Primary bath with stall shower, tile, double vanity, walk-in closet and windowOther baths feature shower over tub, solid surface, split bath design, updated finishes, fiberglass
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric) with zoned controlsCentral air conditioningENERGY STAR qualified equipment
Interior features: Family roomOfficeBreakfast barBreakfast nookSolid surface countersPantryUpdated kitchenSmart thermostatDouble pane windows with screensENERGY STAR qualified windows
Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room with hookups onlyElectric water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $839,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $839,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $839,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $839,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $839,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $839,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $839,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $839,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $839,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $839,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $839,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $839,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $839,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $839,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $839,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $839,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $839,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $839,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $839,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $839,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $839,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $839,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $839,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $839,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $839,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $839,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $839,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-21

remarks 699-char remark
2026-08-21

days on marketlisting id $839,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $839,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $839,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $839,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $839,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $839,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-15

pricedays on market $839,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $849,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $849,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $849,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $849,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $849,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $849,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $849,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $849,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $849,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $849,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $849,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $849,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $849,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $849,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $849,990 Active 45 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $49,347
− Mortgage interest: −$47,052
− Property taxes: −$12,600
− Insurance: −$4,200
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,948
− Management: −$3,948
− HOA: −$3,060
− Depreciation: −$24,436
Taxable loss: −$49,897

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,975
After-tax cash flow: $-21,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 20 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious kitchen, primary bathroom, and ample natural light. The property is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures enhance the bathroom's appeal ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Phillips Elementary Middle Silverado Middle High Napa High

Schools (NCES district)

District: Napa Valley Unified
NCES district ID: 0626640
Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
Median HH income: $72,007
Composite: 40.18/100
National rank: #7827
State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Napa

Score: 70/100
State rank: #227
US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Napa, CA
County: Napa County · 153,987 people
City population: 91,371
Metro: Napa, CA
Population (ZIP): 63,657
Household income: $113,269
Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 153,987 people
By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
Current HPI: 296.0661
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
Metro: Napa, CA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-08-20 Listed $839,990 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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