111 Kincaid Ave · Syracuse, NY 13204

$74,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 734 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1920 2,805 sqft lot $102/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Small 2-bedroom 1 bath Ran stye home. Home will need some work and updating. good size eat in kitchen, dining room and living room. 2 small bedrooms. Full basement and 1 car garage with shared driveway. Small yard and front porch. Dead end road so not traffic. Sold AS-IS to settle estate. No survey provides. With a little work this can be a great little house.

Key facts

• 2,805 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Shared driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shake siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt architectural shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Pull-down attic stairs; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $653 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.35%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,372
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -57.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Charlotte St	0.42mi	1/2.0 (-1)	726 (-1%)	17mo	$185,000	$255	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $89,954
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.97×
• Total profit: $251,005
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13204

• Home prices YoY: 31.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $692/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $653

Break-even live

Break-even rent $610

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $695	-5% $674	+0% $653	+5% $632	+10% $610
Rent	-10% $539	-5% $596	+0% $653	+5% $709	+10% $766
Rate	-1.0pp $690	-0.5pp $672	base $653	+0.5pp $633	+1.0pp $614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 Woods Rd Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	537	$1,445	$2.69	44d	2	0.18mi
1265 W Genesee St Unit 107 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	44d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $74,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $79,900 Active 362-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $692 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $979 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$287/yr (+$24/mo · 41.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$692
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $7,033
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,688
• After-tax cash flow: $6,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,440
• Household income: $45,351
• Rent vs Own: 70.8% rent · 29.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2073.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.14%
• Current HPI: 416.7272
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.24%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $74,900 CNYIS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $79,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $692 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.