111 Kincaid Ave · Syracuse, NY 13204

$67,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 734 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1920 Fair condition 2,805 sqft lot Garage $93/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Small 2-bedroom 1 bath Ran stye home. Home will need some work and updating. good size eat in kitchen, dining room and living room. 2 small bedrooms. Full basement and 1 car garage with shared driveway. Small yard and front porch. Dead end road so not traffic. Sold AS-IS to settle estate. No survey provides. With a little work this can be a great little house.

Key facts

• 2,805 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 7.5% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Syracuse Latin School (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,262 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 642 students, 42% FRL); Expeditionary Learning Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 170 students, 76% FRL); Institute of Technology At Syracuse Central (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 581 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($469 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $63,826 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.70%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,768
• List price: $67,900
• Delta: -57.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Charlotte St	0.42mi	1/2.0 (-1)	726 (-1%)	18mo	$185,000	$255	54
324 2nd St	0.93mi	2/1.0	780 (+6%)	8mo	$65,000	$83	48
100 Hazard St	0.87mi	2/1.0	720 (-2%)	22mo	$125,000	$174	44
407 Ulster St	0.98mi	2/1.5	784 (+7%)	10mo	$169,000	$216	43
407 Montrose Ave	0.87mi	2/1.0	672 (-8%)	12mo	$175,600	$261	40
225 Draper Ave	0.88mi	2/1.0	864 (+18%)	20mo	$170,000	$197	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $88,671
• Equity at exit: $61,170

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.4%
• Equity multiple: 13.90×
• Total profit: $245,253
• Equity at exit: $131,915

Cash invested: $19,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 13204

• Home prices YoY: 31.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $692/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $560

Max offer price $67,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $731	-5% $712	+0% $692	+5% $673	+10% $654
Rent	-10% $579	-5% $636	+0% $692	+5% $749	+10% $806
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $710	base $692	+0.5pp $675	+1.0pp $657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,975
• Closing costs: $2,037
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 Woods Rd Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	537	$1,445	$2.69	93d	2	0.18mi
1265 W Genesee St Unit 107 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	93d	1	1.16mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garageShared driveway1 garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers)Public water connectedSewer connectedCable available
• Home design: Single-story homeExisting construction
• Construction: Aluminum sidingShake sidingCopper plumbingAsphalt architectural shingle roofBlock foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porchOpen porchBlacktop drivewayRectangular residential lotCity street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetHardwoodLaminateVaries
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heatingWindow air conditioning units
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining roomEat-in kitchenSeparate/formal living roomPull-down attic stairsBedroom on main levelFull basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basementGas water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $67,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $67,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $74,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $74,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $74,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $74,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $74,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $74,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $74,900 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $74,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $74,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $74,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $74,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $74,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $74,900 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $74,900 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $74,900 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $74,900 Active 60 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $74,900 Active 59 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $74,900 Active 58 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $74,900 Active 57 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $74,900 Active 56 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    statusdays on market $74,900 Active 55 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $74,900 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $74,900 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $74,900 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $74,900 Active Under Contract 51 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $74,900 Active Under Contract 50 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    status $74,900 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $74,900 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $74,900 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $74,900 Active 43 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $74,900 Active 42 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $74,900 Active 40 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $74,900 Active 38 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $74,900 Active 37 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $74,900 Active 34 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $74,900 Active 33 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $74,900 Active 32 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $74,900 Active 31 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $74,900 Active 29 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $74,900 Active 28 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $74,900 Active 26 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $74,900 Active 25 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    price $74,900 Active 24 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $692 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $920 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 32.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,803
• − Property taxes: −$692
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$1,975
• Taxable income: $7,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,839
• After-tax cash flow: $6,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $18,350–$33,030 screening

This single-family home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key areas needing attention include the roof, exterior siding, landscaping, and fencing.

Deferred maintenance Est. $40,000–$120,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be missing shingles and has visible damage.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows are old and appear to be in poor condition.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The electrical panel is not visible, and the house appears to be in need of an update.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The siding is peeling and the house is in need of a complete exterior renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of significant wear
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming
• Major fencing — Appears old and in need of repair

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both trim landscaping — Neat landscaping improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair fencing — A repaired fence enhances safety and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Porter Elementary School F NY #1,923/2,108 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Expeditionary Learning Middle School F NY #611/729 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Corcoran High School B- NY #842/1,100 Nat'l #3,404/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 467,894 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,440
• Household income: $45,351
• Rent vs Own: 70.8% rent · 29.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.14%
• Current HPI: 416.7272
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.24%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garageShared driveway1 garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers)Public water connectedSewer connectedCable available
• Home design: Single-story homeExisting construction
• Construction: Aluminum sidingShake sidingCopper plumbingAsphalt architectural shingle roofBlock foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porchOpen porchBlacktop drivewayRectangular residential lotCity street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetHardwoodLaminateVaries
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heatingWindow air conditioning units
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining roomEat-in kitchenSeparate/formal living roomPull-down attic stairsBedroom on main levelFull basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basementGas water heater

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $74,900 CNYIS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $79,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $692 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.