20053 Northcliff Dr · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$249,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · Manufactured public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $284k · 12% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Your Dream Home in this Beautifully upgraded land lease home, in a Guard-Gated Family Community! Step into this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom contemporary home; offering 1,752 square feet of light, open living space designed for comfort and style. Built in 1993 and thoughtfully updated, this home boasts a spacious, airy floor plan filled with natural light and modern touches throughout. The heart of the home is the stylish kitchen, complete with a central island—perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or gathering with loved ones. The inviting dining and living areas flow seamlessly for entertaining or relaxing, while the dedicated laundry room adds everyday

Key facts

• Central island
• Landscaped backyard
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED CONTEMPORARY HOME
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• DEEP SUNKEN TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $1,778.20 monthly (park lease)
• HOA & community: Park name: Canyon View Estates; Community features include hiking and park access; Manager approval required; Pets are allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 cars), front-entry garage; Total of 2 parking spaces
• Security: Gated community with attendant; Gated with guard; 24-hour security; Resident manager
• Utilities: Water connected (District/Public); Private sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Front entry
• Construction: Mobile home dimensions approximately 80 ft by 50 ft; One story
• Exterior features: Community pool; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main floor; All bedrooms on the ground floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bathroom with double sinks, shower and bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Energy Star cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings (9 feet+); Ceiling fan; Open floor plan; Front entry; One-level living; Gated community with attendant, 24-hour security, on-site resident manager
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Canyon High (1,946 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 18% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.06%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,824
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20126 Northcliff	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (0%)	2mo	$280,000	$160	93
19983 Crestview Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (0%)	7mo	$360,000	$205	78
27829 Sunrise Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (0%)	3mo	$283,000	$162	76
20039 Emerald Creek Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+5%)	16mo	$300,000	$163	60
19954 Emerald Crk	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+5%)	19mo	$335,000	$182	54
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #231	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-10%)	3mo	$240,000	$153	48
20401 Soledad Cyn #613	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (+4%)	24mo	$254,500	$140	41
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #821	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (-14%)	23mo	$235,800	$156	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $29,329
• Equity at exit: $37,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $102,871
• Equity at exit: $21,572

Cash invested: $69,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,308
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,015/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$753
• Net cashflow: $1,168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $249,500

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,375
• Closing costs: $7,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28131 Florence Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1515	$4,300	$2.84	1d	1	0.70mi
28128 Wildwind Rd Canyon Country, CA	3.0	3.0	1900	$3,875	$2.04	1d	1	0.93mi
26844 Albion Way Unit 1 Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1817	$3,995	$2.20	12d	1	1.05mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$2,925	$2.78	24d	2	1.09mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,700	$2.70	1d	1	1.10mi
19335 Laroda Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	7d	1	1.18mi
28371 Mirabelle Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,400	$1.99	6d	1	1.18mi
28366 Casselman Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,650	$2.13	1d	1	1.22mi
19341 Opal Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1850	$3,850	$2.08	18d	1	1.27mi
28136 Bakerton Ave Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	7d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,500 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,500 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,500 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,500 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,500 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,500 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,500 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,500 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,500 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,500 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,500 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,500 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $249,500 Active 166 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,015 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,015 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,976
• − Property taxes: −$3,015
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,441
• − Management: −$3,441
• − Depreciation: −$7,258
• Taxable income: $10,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,551
• After-tax cash flow: $11,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-31.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $249,500 CRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $255,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $315,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $332,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $362,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $362,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,015 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.