9309 SE Highway 42 · The Villages, FL 34491

$278,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 2025 0.29 ac lot $190/sqft · 5% below area Est $294k · 5% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2025 St. Michael model home is a block construction property located within walking distance to the VA Veterans Clinic near The Villages. The home sits on a . 31-acre lot and offers no HOA, no 55+ restrictions, no CDD, no flood zone, and no other restrictions. With over 2,090 total square feet, the spacious open-concept living area is perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is elegantly designed with granite countertops, 42-inch wood cabinets with soft-close system and crown molding, a large multifunctional island with storage, electrical outlets, and bar seating, a stainless steel double-bowl apron sink, and Whirlpool appliances including a microwave over the range. The interior also features a generous laundry room with cabinetry. The master suite includes a walk-in closet and a master bathroom with tiled walk-in shower, glass enclosure, granite countertops, dual faucets, and a wall-mounted cabinet with mirror. Two additional guest bedrooms have abundant natural light and share a luxury bathroom with steel tub, tiled shower, granite countertop, wood cabinet, and linen closet. The 2-car garage provides access to the private patio and features an opener, epoxy-treated floor, and side door. The patio offers space for outdoor activities and potential pool installation. Additional upgrades include marble window sills, upgraded lighting fixtures and ceiling fans, extra electrical outlets, a pre-wired alarm system, and an A/C unit located in the laundry room. The lot is fully landscaped with sod, decorative stone accents, modern exterior colors, and city water. This home comes with a builder warranty and is conveniently located just minutes from The Villages, with easy access to restaurants, championship golf courses, and town squares. ¡Hablamos español!

Key facts

• No cdd
• No flood zone
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• NO HOA
• NO CDD
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-535/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harbour View Elementary School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Belleview High School (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 713 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,258 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,720
• List price: $278,400
• Delta: -5.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16899 SE 96th Chapelwood Cir	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (-1%)	1mo	$280,000	$193	72
16845 SE 93rd Cuthbert Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+6%)	1mo	$327,000	$211	69
8702 SE 166th Birchbrook Loop	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-3%)	1mo	$375,000	$264	63
16840 SE 97th Wildwood Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+4%)	14mo	$343,000	$225	57
16340 SE 89th Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-3%)	22mo	$270,000	$190	56
9191 SE 171st Drayton Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+3%)	10mo	$345,000	$228	56
16356 SE 87th Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+10%)	3mo	$233,000	$144	49
16335 SE 88th Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-11%)	9mo	$270,000	$208	49
9270 SE 157th Pl	0.72mi	3/3.0	1,630 (+11%)	1mo	$282,999	$174	43
9800 SE 167th Pl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	14mo	$184,900	$143	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-48,094
• Equity at exit: $41,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-46,113
• Equity at exit: $24,071

Cash invested: $77,952 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 713
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,460
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $797/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,079

Max offer price $270,527

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $34	+0% $-45	+5% $-123	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-124	+0% $-45	+5% $35	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $26	base $-45	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,600
• Closing costs: $8,352
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	23d	1	0.23mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	23d	1	0.42mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	23d	1	0.43mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	15d	1	0.69mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	0.79mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	23d	1	0.86mi
8721 SE 157th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,650	$1.33	23d	1	1.02mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	15d	1	1.05mi
8364 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	1.12mi
8352 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	15d	1	1.13mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	23d	1	1.25mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	23d	1	1.31mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	23d	1	1.33mi
17324 SE 82nd Pecan Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1358	$2,500	$1.84	23d	1	1.34mi
17400 SE 82nd Roslyn Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1138	$4,700	$4.13	23d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   price $278,400 1795-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1795 chars)

   This 2025 St. Michael model home is a block construction property located within walking distance to the VA Veterans Clinic near The Villages. The home sits on a . 31-acre lot and offers no HOA, no 55+ restrictions, no CDD, no flood zone, and no other restrictions. With over 2,090 total square feet, the spacious open-concept living area is perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is elegantly designed with granite countertops, 42-inch wood cabinets with soft-close system and crown molding, a large multifunctional island with storage, electrical outlets, and bar seating, a stainless steel double-bowl apron sink, and Whirlpool appliances including a microwave over the range. The interior also features a generous laundry room with cabinetry. The master suite includes a walk-in closet and a master bathroom with tiled walk-in shower, glass enclosure, granite countertops, dual faucets, and a wall-mounted cabinet with mirror. Two additional guest bedrooms have abundant natural light and share a luxury bathroom with steel tub, tiled shower, granite countertop, wood cabinet, and linen closet. The 2-car garage provides access to the private patio and features an opener, epoxy-treated floor, and side door. The patio offers space for outdoor activities and potential pool installation. Additional upgrades include marble window sills, upgraded lighting fixtures and ceiling fans, extra electrical outlets, a pre-wired alarm system, and an A/C unit located in the laundry room. The lot is fully landscaped with sod, decorative stone accents, modern exterior colors, and city water. This home comes with a builder warranty and is conveniently located just minutes from The Villages, with easy access to restaurants, championship golf courses, and town squares. ¡Hablamos español!

2. 2026-01-06
   listed $284,450 Active 1795-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1795 chars)

   This 2025 St. Michael model home is a block construction property located within walking distance to the VA Veterans Clinic near The Villages. The home sits on a . 31-acre lot and offers no HOA, no 55+ restrictions, no CDD, no flood zone, and no other restrictions. With over 2,090 total square feet, the spacious open-concept living area is perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is elegantly designed with granite countertops, 42-inch wood cabinets with soft-close system and crown molding, a large multifunctional island with storage, electrical outlets, and bar seating, a stainless steel double-bowl apron sink, and Whirlpool appliances including a microwave over the range. The interior also features a generous laundry room with cabinetry. The master suite includes a walk-in closet and a master bathroom with tiled walk-in shower, glass enclosure, granite countertops, dual faucets, and a wall-mounted cabinet with mirror. Two additional guest bedrooms have abundant natural light and share a luxury bathroom with steel tub, tiled shower, granite countertop, wood cabinet, and linen closet. The 2-car garage provides access to the private patio and features an opener, epoxy-treated floor, and side door. The patio offers space for outdoor activities and potential pool installation. Additional upgrades include marble window sills, upgraded lighting fixtures and ceiling fans, extra electrical outlets, a pre-wired alarm system, and an A/C unit located in the laundry room. The lot is fully landscaped with sod, decorative stone accents, modern exterior colors, and city water. This home comes with a builder warranty and is conveniently located just minutes from The Villages, with easy access to restaurants, championship golf courses, and town squares. ¡Hablamos español!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $797 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,513/yr (+$126/mo · 189.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,595
• − Property taxes: −$797
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − Depreciation: −$8,099
• Taxable loss: −$5,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $278,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listed $284,450 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+28.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $797 · +65.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.