106-108 Messenger St · Johnstown, PA 15902

$45,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · MultiFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 1906 2,614 sqft lot $25/sqft · 15% above area Est $39k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Handyman special. This 2 unit property is ideal for rental portfolio. Each unit offers a living room, dining room, and kitchen on main level. 2 bedrooms and a bath upstairs as well as an attic. Plumbing and heating have been repaired and all utilities are in working order per the owner. Some new flooring and paining has been completed. Sold strictly as-is and buyer responsible for sewer cert. Schedule your tour!

Key facts

• Attic
• Kitchen
• Living room

Tags

• 2 UNIT PROPERTY
• LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• ATTIC
• PLUMBING AND HEATING REPAIRED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family residential income property; 2-story building
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two-bedroom units (each unit with 2 bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Has heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $918 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $459/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.5% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,678/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 266% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.75%
• DSCR: 5.17
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,271
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: 14.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
915-915.5 Bedford St	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,800 (0%)	7mo	$69,900	$39	70
530-532 Oak St	0.22mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+3%)	17mo	$50,000	$27	65
530-532 Oak St	0.22mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,060 (+14%)	0mo	$25,000	$12	60
318-318.5 Mcmillen St	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,018 (+12%)	22mo	$50,000	$25	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $51,254
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.54×
• Total profit: $120,254
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15902

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,038/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $918

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 40%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,678
Total (2 units)			$1,678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 Cypress Ave Unit 706 Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	2496	$950	$0.38	43d	1	1.05mi
129-131 Plainfield Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$850	$0.65	43d	1	1.10mi
550 Ferndale Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,100	$0.85	43d	1	1.39mi
553 Vickroy Ave #555 Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$985	$0.76	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $45,000 Active 416-char remark
17. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus $40,000
18. 1996-04-01
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,038 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,038
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $11,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,646
• After-tax cash flow: $8,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Johnstown SD
• NCES district ID: 4210950
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,890
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #509 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #3168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, PA
• County: Cambria County · 30,791 people
• City population: 30,791
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 11,462
• Household income: $44,215
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 266.0

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Hungarian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.86%
• Current HPI: 108.2198
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+130.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $45,000 CSMLS
• 2020-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,038 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.