22 Beaver Dam Rd · Ashby, MA 01431

$214,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1936 4,356 sqft lot $189/sqft · 44% below area Est $385k · 44% under · waterfront ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS and OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS - TAKE NOTE! Bring your vision to this unique waterfront home with spectacular views of Wrights Pond. This home has been in the family since 1936. Be the lucky one to create lasting memories in this quaint seasonal camp. Enjoy spring fishing, summer swimming, fall mountain climbing, and winter ice skating. The location has it all and is near city amenities! Unit 1 has a full kitchen, a gas stove for heat, ample cabinet storage and countertops, a breakfast nook, two bedrooms, a washer, dryer, an indoor shower, a living room, and ample dining space to feed a hungry crowd after a day of outdoor activities. Apartment #2 has a full kitchen, a couch that pulls

Key facts

• Large deck
• Full kitchen
• Waterfront home

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• FULL KITCHEN
• LARGE DECK
• WATER LEVEL DOCK
• POND WATER AVAILABLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Some personal property excluded from sale (kitchen hutch in Unit #1, fish on living room wall, couch, and TV)
• HOA & community: Community features include park, walk/jog trails, conservation area, and house of worship

Exterior

• Parking: Three open, unpaved parking spaces
• Utilities: Washer hookup; Electric range connection; Unimproved road access
• Home design: Single family residence (attached); Has waterview: private pond with direct frontage and access
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Built (per public records)
• Exterior features: Wood deck; Exterior deck; Sloped lot; Scenic view(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Country kitchen with breakfast bar / nook; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.5' x 10.3')
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring throughout; Wall-to-wall carpet in living area
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Open floorplan; In-law floorplan; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with exterior access on the first floor (approx. 6.5' x 9.8'); Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $208k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Middlesex (rural): math 36% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #150 of 302 in MA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.94%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,947
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -44.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1020 Richardson Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,160 (+2%)	2mo	$400,000	$345	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $35,216
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $120,798
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01431

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,917/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $1,100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,742

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,222	-5% $1,161	+0% $1,100	+5% $1,039	+10% $978
Rent	-10% $852	-5% $976	+0% $1,100	+5% $1,224	+10% $1,348
Rate	-1.0pp $1,208	-0.5pp $1,155	base $1,100	+0.5pp $1,044	+1.0pp $988

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $214,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Price Changed 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricestatusdays on market $214,900 Price Changed 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $219,900 New 1000-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,917 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$363/yr (+$30/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$1,917
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,009
• − Management: −$3,009
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable income: $10,315
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,476
• After-tax cash flow: $10,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Middlesex
• NCES district ID: 2508790
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $82,624
• Composite: 41.69/100
• National rank: #3413
• State rank: #150 of 302 in MA

Livability — Ashby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,188

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,740,269 people
• By 2030: 1,817,187 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 1,963,195 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 2,087,461 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 2,344,036 · +34.7%
• By 2100: 2,383,776 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.5) · D 68.5% · R 29.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.3pp toward D · 2008: 30.1pp · 2024: 39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.5 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+38.1 2012: D+26.9 2008: D+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 276.7752
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $214,900 MLS PIN
• 2026-05-13 Listed $219,900 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,917 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.