5354 W Chisum Trl W · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$445,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,297 sqft · Condo public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2006 $194/sqft · at area comps Est $454k · at est. $418/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stetson Valley is a master planned Community known for its beautiful amenities. Its hiking trails,dog friendly parks & play grounds. The neighbors love its clean environment making it a popular choice for families! We are offering this Spacious 4 bed 2.5 bath with private office and formal dining room in the Inspiration gated community. Excellent floor plan sitting on a premium corner lot with full 2 car driveway + 2 car garage. Pristine community pool across the greenbelt with all the amenities. Water,trash(common areas),landscaping,are all included with HOA. Water softener, My-Q tech garage door opener. Close to good schools,shopping,dining with quick freeway access. This is what low maintenance living is all about with Scenic Stunning Mountain Views in a private gated community!

Key facts

• 1,704 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-770 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Las Brisas Elementary School (math 57% / reading 63%, grade B-, #146 of 1,109 statewide, top 13%, 476 students, 18% FRL); Hillcrest Middle School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade B-, #15 of 218 statewide, top 7%, 899 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $263k; list at $445k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,896 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.42%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $454,128
• List price: $445,000
• Delta: -2.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $191,286
• Equity at exit: $400,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $597,889
• Equity at exit: $864,537

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$418
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,884

Max offer price $308,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-518	-5% $-644	+0% $-770	+5% $-896	+10% $-1,022
Rent	-10% $-1,000	-5% $-885	+0% $-770	+5% $-655	+10% $-540
Rate	-1.0pp $-546	-0.5pp $-657	base $-770	+0.5pp $-885	+1.0pp $-1,003

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5310 W Chisum Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,195	$1.28	1d	1	0.07mi
26681 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,160	$1.15	9d	1	0.35mi
5340 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,400	$1.28	26d	1	0.40mi
5388 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,099	$1.12	9d	1	0.40mi
5235 W Blaylock Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,850	$1.34	26d	1	0.42mi
5433 W Red Bird Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2745	$3,300	$1.20	26d	1	0.47mi
27015 N 52nd Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,795	$1.21	20d	1	0.58mi
5118 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,450	$1.15	9d	1	0.58mi
5511 W Desperado Way Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,695	$1.50	1d	1	0.63mi
27105 N 52nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,499	$1.08	18d	1	0.64mi
5412 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1805	$3,200	$1.77	45d	1	0.71mi
5432 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2103	$2,900	$1.38	14d	1	0.73mi
5414 W Straight Arrow Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1760	$4,500	$2.56	45d	1	0.77mi
27424 N 54th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,885	$1.37	3d	1	0.79mi
6102 W Fallen Leaf Ln Glendale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2018	$2,350	$1.16	26d	1	1.08mi
6326 W El Cortez Pl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2579	$3,450	$1.34	4d	1	1.16mi
27807 N 59th Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2983	$2,999	$1.01	1d	1	1.16mi
25223 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2113	$2,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.18mi
6101 W Whispering Wind Dr Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	1938	$2,950	$1.52	19d	1	1.23mi
4536 W Villa Linda Dr Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,500	$1.27	45d	1	1.28mi
6424 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1647	$2,195	$1.33	9d	1	1.32mi
6017 W Running Deer Trl Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2563	$2,750	$1.07	4d	1	1.32mi
6425 W Desert Hollow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2295	$2,250	$0.98	7d	1	1.35mi
6506 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2876	$3,100	$1.08	7d	1	1.37mi
6434 W Hackamore Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	3175	$3,400	$1.07	26d	1	1.39mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	23d	1	1.40mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	26d	1	1.40mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	12d	1	1.40mi
27513 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,395	$1.28	16d	1	1.42mi
6618 W Honeysuckle Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2436	$2,200	$0.90	45d	1	1.45mi
4410 W Fallen Leaf Ln Glendale, AZ	5.0	2.5	3315	$3,750	$1.13	9d	1	1.47mi
5925 W Cielo Grande Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,695	$1.43	20d	1	1.48mi
6602 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2793	$3,300	$1.18	0d	1	1.48mi
5843 W Cielo Grande Glendale, AZ	4.0	4.0	2457	$4,100	$1.67	9d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $418 · $5,016/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $445,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $445,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $445,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $445,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    price $445,000 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Stetson Valley is a master planned Community known for its beautiful amenities. Its hiking trails,dog friendly parks & play grounds. The neighbors love its clean environment making it a popular choice for families! We are offering this Spacious 4 bed 2.5 bath with private office and formal dining room in the Inspiration gated community. Excellent floor plan sitting on a premium corner lot with full 2 car driveway + 2 car garage. Pristine community pool across the greenbelt with all the amenities. Water,trash(common areas),landscaping,are all included with HOA. Water softener, My-Q tech garage door opener. Close to good schools,shopping,dining with quick freeway access. This is what low maintenance living is all about with Scenic Stunning Mountain Views in a private gated community!

17. 2026-02-25
    listed $455,000 Active 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Stetson Valley is a master planned Community known for its beautiful amenities. Its hiking trails,dog friendly parks & play grounds. The neighbors love its clean environment making it a popular choice for families! We are offering this Spacious 4 bed 2.5 bath with private office and formal dining room in the Inspiration gated community. Excellent floor plan sitting on a premium corner lot with full 2 car driveway + 2 car garage. Pristine community pool across the greenbelt with all the amenities. Water,trash(common areas),landscaping,are all included with HOA. Water softener, My-Q tech garage door opener. Close to good schools,shopping,dining with quick freeway access. This is what low maintenance living is all about with Scenic Stunning Mountain Views in a private gated community!

18. 2018-08-27
    soldstatus $263,000 Closed 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Great location in the community with mountain views. Beautiful pavers through out the back yard. New exterior paint done in May 2018. HOA includes water, trash, landscaping, and community pool maintenance. Inspiration is the beautiful gated community in Stetson Valley with low maintenance cost & easy access to highway, shopping, dining etc...

19. 2018-08-27
    soldstatus $263,000

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Great location in the community with mountain views. Beautiful pavers through out the back yard. New exterior paint done in May 2018. HOA includes water, trash, landscaping, and community pool maintenance. Inspiration is the beautiful gated community in Stetson Valley with low maintenance cost & easy access to highway, shopping, dining etc...

20. 2018-08-15
    status Pending 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Great location in the community with mountain views. Beautiful pavers through out the back yard. New exterior paint done in May 2018. HOA includes water, trash, landscaping, and community pool maintenance. Inspiration is the beautiful gated community in Stetson Valley with low maintenance cost & easy access to highway, shopping, dining etc...

21. 2018-07-28
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Great location in the community with mountain views. Beautiful pavers through out the back yard. New exterior paint done in May 2018. HOA includes water, trash, landscaping, and community pool maintenance. Inspiration is the beautiful gated community in Stetson Valley with low maintenance cost & easy access to highway, shopping, dining etc...

22. 2018-07-13
    listed $269,000 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Great location in the community with mountain views. Beautiful pavers through out the back yard. New exterior paint done in May 2018. HOA includes water, trash, landscaping, and community pool maintenance. Inspiration is the beautiful gated community in Stetson Valley with low maintenance cost & easy access to highway, shopping, dining etc...

23. 2011-12-09
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed
24. 2011-12-09
    soldstatus $120,000
25. 2011-10-07
    status Pending
26. 2011-10-06
    listed $120,000 Active
27. 2011-03-08
    historical
28. 2011-02-09
    price $122,000
29. 2011-02-08
    price $124,000
30. 2011-02-01
    price $124,900
31. 2011-01-25
    status Active
32. 2011-01-14
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
33. 2010-12-14
    price $129,900
34. 2010-12-05
    price $130,000
35. 2010-11-24
    price $135,000
36. 2010-11-02
    price $155,000
37. 2010-10-25
    price $160,000
38. 2010-10-08
    price $162,500
39. 2010-09-25
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,574 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,937 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,363/yr (+$114/mo · 86.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,793
• − Management: −$2,793
• − HOA: −$5,016
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$17,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,168
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+169.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $445,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $455,000 ARMLS
• 2018-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $263,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-27 Sold (MLS) $263,000 ARMLS
• 2018-08-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-07-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-07-13 Listed $269,000 ARMLS
• 2011-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-09 Sold (MLS) $120,000 ARMLS
• 2011-10-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-10-06 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2011-03-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-02-09 Price Changed $122,000 ARMLS
• 2011-02-08 Price Changed $124,000 ARMLS
• 2011-02-01 Price Changed $124,900 ARMLS
• 2011-01-25 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2011-01-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2010-12-14 Price Changed $129,900 ARMLS
• 2010-12-05 Price Changed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2010-11-24 Price Changed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2010-11-02 Price Changed $155,000 ARMLS
• 2010-10-25 Price Changed $160,000 ARMLS
• 2010-10-08 Price Changed $162,500 ARMLS
• 2010-09-25 Listed $165,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,574 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.