5632 W Circle Dr · North Syracuse, NY 13039

$234,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1950 8,040 sqft lot Est $199k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this completely updated Cape Cod–style home, perfectly located near shopping, public transportation, and with easy freeway access—yet tucked away on a quiet dead-end street reserved for residents only. This move-in-ready gem features a brand-new roof, windows, doors, flooring, and fresh paint throughout. The remodeled kitchen shines with new cabinets, a breakfast bar, and new appliances, including a refrigerator and standing gas stove, plus a new thermostat for year-round comfort. Offering 4 bedrooms and 1 full bath, the home also includes a full basement with a new sump pump and convenient access from the attached garage, complete with a new garage door opener. Enjoy

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Brand-new roof
• New cabinets

Tags

• UPDATED CAPE COD STYLE HOME
• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#379 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• North Syracuse Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #402 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $187,371 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,720
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5632 W Circle Dr	0.00mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (0%)	1mo	$234,900	$213	94
128 Northfield Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,104 (0%)	1mo	$206,500	$187	68
105 Kopp Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,099 (-0%)	23mo	$150,000	$136	66
104 Lynhurst Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,128 (+2%)	8mo	$161,700	$143	55
5627 Bear Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+15%)	8mo	$227,900	$180	50
151 Maxwell Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,107 (+0%)	17mo	$142,000	$128	47
5470 Bear Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-9%)	23mo	$215,000	$213	32
5552 Bear Rd	0.51mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,260 (+14%)	20mo	$215,000	$171	30
5835 Tuller Rd	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	988 (-10%)	22mo	$217,000	$220	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-52,213
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-63,471
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13039

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$374 /mo · $4,487/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,156

Max offer price $195,439

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-157	+0% $-223	+5% $-290	+10% $-356
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-297	+0% $-223	+5% $-149	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-164	base $-223	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5548 Bear Rd Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$1,560	$1.42	15d	2	0.56mi
8091 Weblank Way Clay, NY	3.0	1.5	1150	$2,200	$1.91	23d	1	1.08mi
107 Stephen Pl Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1199	$2,250	$1.88	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-15
   listed $234,900 Active
4. 2024-04-03
   status Pending
5. 2024-04-03
   historical
6. 2024-03-30
   listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,487 · $374/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,487 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$4,487
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$6,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,624
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Syracuse Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,904
• Composite: 41.93/100
• National rank: #3356
• State rank: #402 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Syracuse

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #6513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,185
• Population (ZIP): 17,184

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada, Mexico
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.98%
• Current HPI: 314.7902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+67.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $234,900 CNYIS
• 2024-04-03 Pending — CNYIS
• 2024-04-03 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-03-30 Listed $140,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,487 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.