16773 Carriage Way · Northville, MI 48168

$255,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,653 sqft · Condo public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2002 $154/sqft · 7% below area Est $275k · 7% under $350/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this immaculate upper floor condo in highly desirable Northville! Perfectly situated on a premium site, this home offers a spacious open floor plan new carpet. . The inviting great room features a cozy fireplace, while the open kitchen is highlighted by a large breakfast bar. The primary suite boasts a doorwall to the covered patio, a walk-in closet. The second bedroom also includes a walk-in closet, with a full bath conveniently located just off the entry. This sought-after community offers exceptional amenities: an in-ground pool and spa, fitness center, clubhouse, children's play area, commons, and multiple ponds. Recent updates include a new building roof (2023). An extra-deep attached garage provides additional storage space. Enjoy peaceful views of nature and wildlife with walking and biking trails just outside your door - yet you're only minutes from downtown Northville's charming shops and restaurants. BATVAI

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Premium site
• Large breakfast bar

Tags

• UPPER FLOOR CONDO
• PREMIUM SITE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR
• DOORWALL TO COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is part of WAYNE COUNTY CONDO SUB PLAN 672
• Financial info: Financial details not specified
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $350 monthly fee; HOA covers grounds and structure maintenance, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential condominium; Two levels; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Slab foundation; Built year not specified
• Exterior features: Community outdoor in-ground pool; Clubhouse; Sidewalks; Paved road access; Cats and dogs allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Electric fireplace in the family room; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $251k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.4% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#13 in MI, #205 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northville Public Schools (suburban): math 68% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #4 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $251,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.12%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,799
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -7.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-21,642
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $7,276
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48168

• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,211/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,714

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47671 Alden Ter N Northville, MI	3.0	3.5	2085	$3,100	$1.49	10d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $255,000 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $255,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $255,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    listed $265,000 Active 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Don't miss this immaculate upper floor condo in highly desirable Northville! Perfectly situated on a premium site, this home offers a spacious open floor plan new carpet. . The inviting great room features a cozy fireplace, while the open kitchen is highlighted by a large breakfast bar. The primary suite boasts a doorwall to the covered patio, a walk-in closet. The second bedroom also includes a walk-in closet, with a full bath conveniently located just off the entry. This sought-after community offers exceptional amenities: an in-ground pool and spa, fitness center, clubhouse, children's play area, commons, and multiple ponds. Recent updates include a new building roof (2023). An extra-deep attached garage provides additional storage space. Enjoy peaceful views of nature and wildlife with walking and biking trails just outside your door - yet you're only minutes from downtown Northville's charming shops and restaurants. BATVAI

11. 2026-05-11
    listed $265,000 Active 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Don't miss this immaculate upper floor condo in highly desirable Northville! Perfectly situated on a premium site, this home offers a spacious open floor plan new carpet. . The inviting great room features a cozy fireplace, while the open kitchen is highlighted by a large breakfast bar. The primary suite boasts a doorwall to the covered patio, a walk-in closet. The second bedroom also includes a walk-in closet, with a full bath conveniently located just off the entry. This sought-after community offers exceptional amenities: an in-ground pool and spa, fitness center, clubhouse, children's play area, commons, and multiple ponds. Recent updates include a new building roof (2023). An extra-deep attached garage provides additional storage space. Enjoy peaceful views of nature and wildlife with walking and biking trails just outside your door - yet you're only minutes from downtown Northville's charming shops and restaurants. BATVAI

12. 2025-02-18
    historical $1,850
13. 2025-01-24
    listed $1,850
14. 2003-11-28
    soldstatus $185,475

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,211 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,211 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$4,211
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,976
• − Management: −$2,976
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$34
• After-tax cash flow: $3,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625980
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $108,824
• Composite: 66.21/100
• National rank: #431
• State rank: #4 of 540 in MI

Livability — Northville

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #205

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,713
• Population (ZIP): 25,039

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Asian 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.06%
• Current HPI: 176.9122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+37.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $255,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $255,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Listed $265,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Listed $265,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-18 Rental Removed $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-24 Listed for Rent $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2003-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $185,475 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,211 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.