16491 E State Route 3 · Grapeview, WA 98524

$355,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,958 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1961 5.05 ac lot $120/sqft · 69% below area Est $569k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

5 acres, endless upside, priced to move. This 1,479 sq ft home is sold as-is. Bring your vision and your contractors. Finish the basement and you're looking at close to 3,000 sq ft of living space. The land has fruit trees, garden space, outbuildings, and room for an RV, boat, or equipment storage. Investors, builders, and owner-occupants with a vision, this is for you. Properties with this much land and this much upside don't sit long.

Key facts

• Outbuildings
• 5 acres
• Room for rv

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• FRUIT TREES
• GARDEN SPACE
• OUTBUILDINGS
• ROOM FOR RV

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, and Rehab Loan terms

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Detached carport; Driveway; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Individual well water; Septic tank sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Single-family house; One level (1 story) with basement
• Construction: Metal/vinyl and wood construction
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl and wood exterior; Wood products; Composition roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath and 1 three-quarter bath (both on the main level); 1 bathtub, 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Forced air cooling; Electric energy source
• Interior features: Built on lot; Baseboard heating and forced air cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.9% in Grapeview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#235 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Grapeview School District (rural): math 50% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #90 of 291 in WA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $239,396 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $569,418
• List price: $355,000
• Delta: -37.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-76,008
• Equity at exit: $52,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-90,352
• Equity at exit: $30,694

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98524

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,037/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,759

Max offer price $304,104

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $355,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $355,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $355,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $355,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $355,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $355,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $355,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $355,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $365,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $365,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $365,000 Active
18. 2021-01-08
    soldstatus $300,000 Sold
19. 2021-01-08
    soldstatus $4,800
20. 2020-12-03
    status Pending
21. 2020-11-25
    price $300,000
22. 2020-11-16
    status Active
23. 2020-11-09
    status Pending Inspection
24. 2020-11-04
    listed $349,000 Active
25. 2007-11-19
    soldstatus $143,300
26. 2007-11-19
    soldstatus $143,300
27. 2007-09-20
    historical
28. 2007-08-16
    listed $139,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,479 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,442/yr (+$120/mo · 70.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$2,037
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$9,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,375
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grapeview School District
• NCES district ID: 5303240
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $63,697
• Composite: 50.03/100
• National rank: #4132
• State rank: #90 of 291 in WA

Livability — Grapeview

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #7201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,585

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Slovak 9% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.76%
• Current HPI: 183.7245
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+155.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $355,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $365,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $4,800 Public Records
• 2021-01-08 Sold (MLS) $300,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-25 Price Changed $300,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-16 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-04 Listed $349,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $143,300 Public Records
• 2007-11-19 Sold (MLS) $143,300 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-20 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-16 Listed $139,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,037 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.