4706 Burney Dr · Elfers, FL 34690

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1981 5,400 sqft lot Est $141k · 24% over $143/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Premium waterfront lot in 55+ park with clubhouse and pool. Maint. fee $80/mo includes lawn & trash. 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile has screened area in carport. Living room has mirrored wall. Security system. Sold as-is for sellers convenience.

Key facts

• Waterfront home
• Updated kitchen
• 5,400 sq ft lot

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• OVERLOOKING LAKE TANGLEWOOD
• SEAWALL AROUND WATER FRONTAGE
• STEPS TO WATER'S EDGE
• NEWER TILT-OUT WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on Lake Tanglewood with approximately 60 feet of lake frontage; Lake front with lake access and concrete seawall; Lot is paved, landscaped, and near public transit; Lot vegetation includes mature landscaping
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported as $1,716
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Qualified Property Management; Monthly HOA fee of $143; Association includes clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Association fee covers common area taxes, pool, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, and trash; Senior community; Pets allowed (max ~25 lbs); Buyer approval required for association; Association recreation owned

Exterior

• Parking: Deeded driveway; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High‑speed internet available (BB/HS)
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces southwest; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Storage shed; Irrigation equipment; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Blinds; Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater; Outside laundry access; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Elfers — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $175k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,120
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3115 Bixler Ct	0.14mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$87,000	$91	92
3301 Chatford Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$145,000	$151	91
3126 Birkdale Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	936 (-2%)	9mo	$152,400	$163	84
3200 Birkdale Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	17mo	$140,000	$146	84
4735 Burney Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	896 (-7%)	13mo	$135,000	$151	76
4720 Burney Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,065 (+11%)	1mo	$135,000	$127	75
4715 Burney Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	12mo	$132,000	$153	72
3414 Chatford Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	12mo	$85,000	$80	61
3330 Chatford Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	840 (-12%)	13mo	$113,000	$135	59
4920 Sherrell Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	18mo	$127,000	$147	57
3035 Buckner Ct	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	18mo	$193,000	$183	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-38,481
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-58,329
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,712

Max offer price $162,410

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-27	+0% $-87	+5% $-147	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-150	+0% $-87	+5% $-24	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-42	base $-87	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	25d	1	0.23mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	6d	1	0.34mi
3421 Tricon Ln #12 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,095	$1.26	0d	1	0.37mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	25d	1	0.52mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	6d	1	0.56mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	0d	7	0.57mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	6d	1	0.62mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	3d	13	0.65mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	6d	1	0.65mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	25d	1	0.66mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	18d	1	0.73mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	6d	1	0.83mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	15d	1	0.88mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	25d	1	0.88mi
4133 Grayton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,727	$1.62	6d	1	0.89mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	15d	1	0.90mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	0d	1	0.90mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	25d	1	0.90mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	15d	1	0.92mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	4d	1	0.92mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	6d	1	0.92mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	25d	1	0.92mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	25d	1	0.96mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	25d	1	0.97mi
5020 Vickers Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	863	$1,495	$1.73	0d	1	0.98mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	15d	1	0.99mi
3516 Sheryl Hill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	848	$1,595	$1.88	25d	1	1.00mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	25d	1	1.05mi
4209 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,300	$2.08	17d	1	1.05mi
4221 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	888	$1,300	$1.46	24d	1	1.07mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	25d	1	1.08mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	25d	1	1.11mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	6d	1	1.12mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	25d	1	1.13mi
3445 Wiltshire Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	992	$1,450	$1.46	22d	1	1.13mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	21d	1	1.18mi
3612 Springfield Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,450	$1.39	18d	1	1.19mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	25d	1	1.23mi
4211 Hampton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,795	$1.71	6d	1	1.24mi
4408 Rustic Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	25d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashpoolsecurity

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-03-20
    status Active
15. 2026-03-13
    status Pending
16. 2026-02-27
    price $185,000
17. 2026-01-25
    listed $195,000 Active
18. 2008-03-12
    soldstatus $79,000
19. 2008-03-07
    soldstatus $79,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Premium waterfront lot in 55+ park with clubhouse and pool. Maint. fee $80/mo includes lawn & trash. 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile has screened area in carport. Living room has mirrored wall. Security system. Sold as-is for sellers convenience.

20. 2007-10-12
    listed $81,900 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Premium waterfront lot in 55+ park with clubhouse and pool. Maint. fee $80/mo includes lawn & trash. 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile has screened area in carport. Living room has mirrored wall. Security system. Sold as-is for sellers convenience.

21. 2002-12-20
    soldstatus $74,900
22. 1992-04-01
    soldstatus $59,900
23. 1989-04-01
    soldstatus $55,000
24. 1981-07-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$951
• After-tax cash flow: $-93/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1955.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2008-03-07 Sold (MLS) $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-12 Listed $81,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.