2877 County Road 463 · Elgin, TX 78621

$365,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 2020 1.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained home on over an acre. Very light restrictions. so much you can do with the property. Large bedroom, with open concept living. Separate living room and game room. Large kitchen. Text agent to schedule.

Key facts

• 1.06 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 138 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-596 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (28.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coupland ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #291 of 1,141 in TX (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,125 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.00%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $161,132
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $504,991
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,123/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,156

Max offer price $259,699

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $365,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $365,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    status Active 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Well maintained home on over an acre. Very light restrictions. so much you can do with the property. Large bedroom, with open concept living. Separate living room and game room. Large kitchen. Text agent to schedule.

15. 2026-03-26
    historical 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Well maintained home on over an acre. Very light restrictions. so much you can do with the property. Large bedroom, with open concept living. Separate living room and game room. Large kitchen. Text agent to schedule.

16. 2025-10-25
    price
17. 2025-10-22
    listed $365,000 Active 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Well maintained home on over an acre. Very light restrictions. so much you can do with the property. Large bedroom, with open concept living. Separate living room and game room. Large kitchen. Text agent to schedule.

18. 2025-05-09
    listed Active
19. 2024-08-02
    listed Active
20. 2023-09-05
    soldstatus
21. 2021-10-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,123 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,680 · $557/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,557/yr (+$130/mo · 30.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$5,123
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$13,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,314
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coupland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,329
• Composite: 46.24/100
• National rank: #5423
• State rank: #291 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $365,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-08-02 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+66.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,123 · -12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.