5803 Forest Timbers Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$238,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,579 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1996 5,880 sqft lot $151/sqft · 8% below area Est $260k · 8% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

TOTALLY REMODELED with ton of upgrades including new fresh paint interior and exterior, new Vinyl flooring, new light fixtures, ceiling fans, quartz countertops, sinks, etc. Home features 3 beds 2 baths with a formal dining and lot of natural lights. Spacious master suite connects with the master bath through a modern sliding door. Master bath is also upgraded with new sinks, light fixture, a rain shower faucet, flooring, etc. Gourmet kitchen with brand new quartz countertops, new stainless-steel appliances, new sink, new cabinets with handles, etc. .. LOW TAX and HOA. Easy access to 1960 and W Lake Parkway. Few minutes away from restaurants, business area, groceries, etc. Welcome to take a

Key facts

• Master suite
• Quartz countertops
• Vinyl flooring

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NATURAL LIGHTS
• MASTER SUITE
• MODERN SLIDING DOOR
• RAIN SHOWER FAUCET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association managed by First Service; Annual association fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1996; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15x16); Bedroom on the first floor (11x11); Bedroom on the first floor (11x10)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Pantry; Quartz counters; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Forest El (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 67% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 12765% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $238k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,982 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.91%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,088
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: -8.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5534 Deer Timbers Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-1%)	1mo	$235,000	$150	73
5822 Skewen St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$118	66
5619 Fawn Trail Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+5%)	1mo	$214,990	$129	64
6010 Sean Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-4%)	5mo	$234,900	$156	61
19914 Big Timber Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+2%)	5mo	$198,000	$123	61
6222 Spruce Bough Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-8%)	4mo	$219,000	$152	60
6406 Caminito Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-6%)	2mo	$245,000	$165	60
5911 Woodmancote Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-4%)	0mo	$235,000	$155	58
6102 Spruce Bough Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-15%)	5mo	$237,000	$176	52
5415 Fawn Trail Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-7%)	2mo	$175,000	$119	52
19102 Twigsworth Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (+13%)	1mo	$189,995	$107	51
5734 Woodmancote Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-11%)	5mo	$198,500	$141	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,684
• Equity at exit: $57,974

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-65,716
• Equity at exit: $61,325

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$457 /mo · $5,488/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,348

Max offer price $179,982

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-194	-5% $-261	+0% $-328	+5% $-396	+10% $-463
Rent	-10% $-481	-5% $-405	+0% $-328	+5% $-252	+10% $-176
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-268	base $-328	+0.5pp $-390	+1.0pp $-453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	44d	1	0.50mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	6d	1	0.56mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	44d	1	0.64mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	2d	16	0.67mi
5419 Deer Timbers Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,705	$1.30	22d	1	0.68mi
19113 Moon Trail Dr Unit ECT Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,319	$1.25	12d	1	0.82mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	0.87mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.95mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	44d	1	0.97mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,856	$1.23	2d	1	1.00mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	1.02mi
5248 Timbers Quail Dr Atascocita, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,225	$1.17	44d	1	1.05mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	1.06mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	6d	1	1.07mi
18551 Timber Forest Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$1,609	$1.49	2d	7	1.09mi
5303 Atascocita Rd Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,403	$1.64	4d	1	1.23mi
5303 Atascocita Rd Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,319	$1.25	44d	1	1.23mi
5303 Atascocita Rd Unit 2047 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,402	$1.33	11d	1	1.24mi
5303 Atascocita Rd Unit 5360 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,391	$1.32	11d	1	1.24mi
5303 Atascocita Rd Unit 2165 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,359	$1.29	3d	1	1.24mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	16d	1	1.25mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	18d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $238,000 Active 717-char remark
16. 2026-04-21
    historical
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $238,000 Active
18. 2026-03-06
    historical
19. 2026-02-06
    listed $238,000 Active
20. 2026-02-06
    historical
21. 2026-01-05
    price $238,000
22. 2025-12-12
    listed $255,990 Active
23. 2025-12-02
    historical
24. 2025-11-17
    price $256,000
25. 2025-10-23
    price $262,000
26. 2025-09-09
    price $269,800
27. 2025-08-19
    listed $279,800 Active
28. 2018-05-29
    soldstatus
29. 2002-02-23
    historical
30. 2002-02-04
    listed $118,900
31. 2002-01-31
    historical
32. 2001-06-11
    listed $118,900
33. 1997-01-01
    soldstatus
34. 1996-06-01
    soldstatus $87,084

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,488 · $457/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,488 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$5,488
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$8,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,934
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $255,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $256,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $262,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $269,800 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $279,800 HARMLS
• 2018-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-02-04 Listed $118,900 HARMLS
• 2002-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-06-11 Listed $118,900 HARMLS
• 1997-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $87,084 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,488 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.