14944 SW 66th Avenue Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2024 10,019 sqft lot $164/sqft · 6% above area Est $283k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Why wait for new construction? This immaculate, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom DR Horton home is better than new and ready for its next owner! Boasting the highly sought-after open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for entertaining. The spacious kitchen features a large island, sleek cabinetry, and a walk-in pantry, all overlooking a bright and airy living and dining area. Built with modern living in mind, this home requires zero repairs and shows like a model. The split-bedroom plan offers a private owner’s suite with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath. Located in a rapidly growing, "up-and-coming" community, you are perfectly positioned for future equity gro

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Spacious kitchen
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• AIRY DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R1; Unfurnished; No CDD; Approximately 1,827 sq ft living area (public records)
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces southwest
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Lot roughly 0.23 acres (80 x 125)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $299k implies a 4500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,978 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,927
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 5.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
766 Marion Oaks Mnr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+1%)	1mo	$320,000	$173	90
15282 SW 65th Avenue Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-3%)	4mo	$287,000	$162	72
6277 SW 148th St	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+0%)	12mo	$338,990	$185	69
15117 SW 66th Avenue Rd	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,643 (-10%)	6mo	$289,000	$176	66
6430 SW 145th Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-3%)	14mo	$315,000	$178	61
6247 SW 144th Street Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,878 (+3%)	4mo	$295,000	$157	58
6386 SW 153rd Lane Rd	0.60mi	4/3.0	1,891 (+4%)	8mo	$308,900	$163	56
6884 SW 149th Lane Rd	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,676 (-8%)	13mo	$280,000	$167	55
6187 SW 154th St	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,891 (+4%)	8mo	$305,000	$161	49
411 Marion Oaks Pass	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,934 (+6%)	12mo	$314,000	$162	44
15388 SW 60th Cir	0.69mi	4/2.5	1,679 (-8%)	14mo	$299,900	$179	40
6181 SW 144th Lane Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,094 (+15%)	9mo	$342,399	$164	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,777
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-63,024
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $619/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,208

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14983 SW 65th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,995	$1.92	14d	1	0.05mi
746 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	21d	1	0.17mi
6765 SW 152nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,850	$1.04	14d	1	0.36mi
6949 SW 152nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,000	$1.50	14d	1	0.38mi
585 Marion Oaks Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,165	$1.13	14d	1	0.39mi
15401 SW 65th Terrace Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	21d	1	0.45mi
15137 SW 61st Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,650	$1.20	21d	1	0.55mi
820 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1747	$1,995	$1.14	21d	1	0.67mi
15284 SW 60th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	14d	1	0.71mi
14576 SW 75th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1936	$1,945	$1.00	14d	1	1.13mi
5541 SW 153rd Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,700	$1.25	14d	1	1.21mi
15889 SW 58th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,875	$1.06	14d	1	1.30mi
7011 SW 136th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,300	$1.38	14d	1	1.36mi
15945 SW 57th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,675	$1.18	21d	1	1.39mi
13616 SW 61st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,595	$1.21	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $299,000 Active 933-char remark
17. 2004-06-24
    soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,863/yr (+$155/mo · 300.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$619
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $2,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4500.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $619 · -12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.