19875 Ava Ln · Conroe, TX 77316

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1985 Poor condition 1.17 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits on this approximately 46,800 SQFT lot in Montgomery, TX! The true value is in the expansive lot size and existing utilities already available, including well, septic, and electricity. Existing mobile home conveys with the property, offering added value and potential for future use, investment, or customization. Enjoy the flexibility to explore your vision while benefiting from an established property footprint. Property is being sold AS-IS. Seller is not aware of any restrictions; buyer to independently verify restrictions, measurements, utilities, and intended use.

Key facts

• Existing utilities
• Expansive lot size
• Mobile home conveys

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT SIZE
• EXISTING UTILITIES
• MOBILE HOME CONVEYS
• ESTABLISHED PROPERTY FOOTPRINT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first-floor living)
• Construction: Built in 1985; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Lot approximately 1.17 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor (each approximately 9 x 9)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Two total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.04%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-13,695
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,090
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,832/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $235	+0% $196	+5% $157	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $139	+0% $196	+5% $253	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $231	base $196	+0.5pp $160	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 591-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $139,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,832 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$712/yr (+$59/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,832
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32
• After-tax cash flow: $2,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including structural repairs, landscaping, and interior improvements. The mobile home is in poor condition and the property is not move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major Mobile home roof — Visible rust and damage
• Major Mobile home siding — Peeling paint and structural damage
• Major Mobile home flooring — Damaged and uneven
• Major Interior walls — Visible damage and peeling paint
• Major Windows — Visible damage and missing panes
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and in poor condition
• Major Fencing — In poor condition with visible damage and missing sections

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fencing repair — Improves curb appeal and safety
• Both Mobile home roof and siding repair — Improves structural integrity and appearance
• Both Mobile home flooring and interior walls repair — Improves living conditions and appearance
• Both Windows repair — Improves safety and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Mobile home roof · Visible rust and damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Mobile home siding · Peeling paint and structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Mobile home flooring · Damaged and uneven	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Visible damage and peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Visible damage and missing panes	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Fencing · In poor condition with visible damage and missing sections	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and fencing repair — Improves curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both Mobile home roof and siding repair — Improves structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Both Mobile home flooring and interior walls repair — Improves living conditions and appearance ↑
• Both Windows repair — Improves safety and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
• 1992-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records