9951 Stephen Richards Memorial Dr Lot 7 · Juneau, AK 99801

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,382 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2022

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right into this better-than-new 2022 mobile home in desirable Sprucewood Mobile Home Park, Space #7! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious, open layout and comes fully furnished, making it truly turnkey and ready for immediate enjoyment. Inside, you’ll find a light and bright living space with modern finishes and plenty of room to spread out. Outside, the property is designed for low-maintenance living with crushed rock landscaping, full skirting, and a fully fenced yard—perfect for privacy, pets, or relaxing outdoors.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Fully fenced yard
• Fully furnished

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• FULLY FURNISHED
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• CRUSHED ROCK LANDSCAPING
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.6% in Juneau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in AK, #703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Juneau Borough School District (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #9 of 21 in AK (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 114 units permitted in Juneau City and Borough in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Juneau County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.25%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,876
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $75,946
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99801

• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,871/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,630

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $200,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $205,000 Active 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    Move right into this better-than-new 2022 mobile home in desirable Sprucewood Mobile Home Park, Space #7! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious, open layout and comes fully furnished, making it truly turnkey and ready for immediate enjoyment. Inside, you’ll find a light and bright living space with modern finishes and plenty of room to spread out. Outside, the property is designed for low-maintenance living with crushed rock landscaping, full skirting, and a fully fenced yard—perfect for privacy, pets, or relaxing outdoors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,871 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,125 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$255/yr (+$21/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,871
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,487
• − Management: −$2,487
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $6,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $7,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Juneau Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200210
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,032
• Composite: 35.76/100
• National rank: #4845
• State rank: #9 of 21 in AK

Livability — Juneau

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #703

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Juneau, AK
• County: Juneau Borough · 29,588 people
• City population: 29,588
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• Population (ZIP): 29,588
• Household income: $102,217
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Juneau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,707 people
• By 2030: 38,658 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 42,270 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 46,086 · +25.6%
• By 2075: 58,476 · +59.3%
• By 2100: 69,228 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 17% Native American 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 3% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Juneau

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.89%
• Current HPI: 170.9025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $205,000 SEABR

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,871 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.