212 Old Owen Rd #59 · Sultan, WA 98294

$134,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1989 $113/sqft · 14% above area Est $118k · 14% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom, 2 full bathrooms, 1,188 sq ft home in the desirable 55 plus Cherry Hill Estates. Primary bath has a Jetted tub. Covered parking for 2 cars.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1989
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $948 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.0% in Sultan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#183 in WA, #4,863 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Sultan School District (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #143 of 291 in WA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $121,940 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.33%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,979
• List price: $134,000
• Delta: 13.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Old Owen Rd #63	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-2%)	23mo	$110,000	$94	73
207 6th St	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-11%)	10mo	$465,000	$440	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $38,630
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $111,204
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98294

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $397/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $948

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,002

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
808 4th St Unit 2 Sultan, WA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,599	$2.22	10d	1	0.86mi
401 8th St Unit E Sultan, WA	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,075	$1.73	2d	1	0.91mi
849 Garden Green Pl Unit 849 Sultan, WA	2.0	2.5	1150	$2,300	$2.00	2d	1	0.97mi
200 Whispering Pine Pl Sultan, WA	3.0	2.5	1428	$2,750	$1.93	44d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $134,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    price $134,000
16. 2026-03-10
    listed $152,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $397 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$916/yr (+$76/mo · 231.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$397
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable income: $9,728
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,335
• After-tax cash flow: $9,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sultan School District
• NCES district ID: 5308550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $63,955
• Composite: 45.32/100
• National rank: #5739
• State rank: #143 of 291 in WA

Livability — Sultan

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #4863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sultan, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,838

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 8% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Slovak 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.36%
• Current HPI: 277.4099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $134,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $152,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2012): $397 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.