2811 W Pima St · Phoenix, AZ 85009

$159,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1950 7,530 sqft lot Est $260k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special. R-3 zoning! Tons of upside & great value for Central Phoenix. A/C, large lot and fenced yard plus Storage shed and carport.

Key facts

• N/s lot exposure
• Backyard storage
• Front access

Tags

• NO HOA
• N/S LOT EXPOSURE
• BACKYARD STORAGE
• FRONT ACCESS
• SIDE ALLEY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Separate storage area
• Utilities: City water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Fixer condition
• Construction: Stucco, painted, and block construction; Composition roof; Other roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Storage; Dirt front and dirt back lot surfaces; Chain link fencing; Other fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Other heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Other cooling
• Interior features: High speed internet; Kitchen island; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carl Hayden High School (math 7% / reading 11%, grade F, #356 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 2,217 students, 93% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.0%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.28%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,776
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
822 S 29th Ave	0.48mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (+4%)	8mo	$137,500	$125	60
2950 W Pima St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,125 (+6%)	20mo	$370,000	$329	53
2938 W Pima St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-14%)	18mo	$320,000	$351	48
2410 W Papago St	0.51mi	3/1.8 (+1)	1,197 (+13%)	15mo	$295,000	$246	33
2315 W Hadley St	0.75mi	2/1.0	900 (-15%)	13mo	$160,000	$178	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,070
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,996
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85009

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Rents YoY: -6.0%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $897/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,240

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2746 W Pima St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,898	$1.73	17d	1	0.06mi
2746 W Pima St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,898	$1.73	1d	1	0.06mi
2942 W Yuma St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,400	$1.87	22d	1	0.25mi
3232 W Jackson St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	1d	1	1.01mi
3310 W Jackson St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	823	$1,450	$1.76	24d	1	1.05mi
3324 W Jackson St #1 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	1d	1	1.07mi
3543 W Grant St Unit A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	851	$1,100	$1.29	14d	1	1.11mi
1920 W Tonto St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	4d	1	1.17mi
121 S 21st Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1350	$2,200	$1.63	1d	1	1.29mi
2213 W Adams St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	760	$1,125	$1.48	1d	1	1.32mi
3325 W Monroe St Unit B Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	14d	1	1.34mi
2133 W Adams St Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$899	$1.12	1d	1	1.36mi
2045 W Washington St Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	1d	1	1.37mi
2121 W Adams St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	875	$1,497	$1.71	1d	2	1.38mi
2121 W Adams St Unit A 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	875	$1,497	$1.71	22d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $159,900 Pending 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,900 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-03-28
    price $174,900
11. 2026-03-28
    status Active
12. 2026-02-27
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
13. 2026-01-01
    listed $179,900 Active
14. 2025-11-13
    price $250,000
15. 2025-10-21
    status Active
16. 2025-09-09
    status Pending
17. 2025-09-09
    historical
18. 2025-09-05
    listed $275,000 Active
19. 2023-01-04
    soldstatus $190,000
20. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Investor special. R-3 zoning! Tons of upside & great value for Central Phoenix. A/C, large lot and fenced yard plus Storage shed and carport.

21. 2022-12-21
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Investor special. R-3 zoning! Tons of upside & great value for Central Phoenix. A/C, large lot and fenced yard plus Storage shed and carport.

22. 2022-12-20
    status Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Investor special. R-3 zoning! Tons of upside & great value for Central Phoenix. A/C, large lot and fenced yard plus Storage shed and carport.

23. 2022-12-13
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Investor special. R-3 zoning! Tons of upside & great value for Central Phoenix. A/C, large lot and fenced yard plus Storage shed and carport.

24. 2022-12-01
    listed $199,999 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Investor special. R-3 zoning! Tons of upside & great value for Central Phoenix. A/C, large lot and fenced yard plus Storage shed and carport.

25. 1985-09-27
    soldstatus $28,000
26. 1983-08-19
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,055 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$159/yr (+$13/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$897
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $1,139
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$273
• After-tax cash flow: $3,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 52,064
• Household income: $52,054
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 34% White 9% Black 5% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 31% English-only · Spanish 67%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.78%
• Current HPI: 409.6161
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1649.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $174,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-30 Sold (MLS) $140,000 ARMLS
• 2022-12-21 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-12-20 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-12-13 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-12-01 Listed $199,999 ARMLS
• 1985-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1983-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $897 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.