8203 Lone Quail Dr · Houston, TX 77489

$242,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1982 7,562 sqft lot $127/sqft · 6% above area Est $229k · 6% over $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

8203 Lone Quail is more than just a residence; it is a promising investment opportunity that combines modern design, functionality, and a prime location. Don't miss the chance to make this renovated gem your next successful venture in the world of real estate. Located in the sought-after Quail Rain community, residents can enjoy the benefits of a tranquil neighborhood while still being within close proximity to essential amenities, shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Upon entering, you are greeted by the inviting charm of high ceilings that lend an airy and spacious ambiance to the entire home. The seamless flow of wood plank vinyl floors throughout the living areas creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, setting the stage for comfortable living. The heart of this home lies in its thoughtfully upgraded kitchen and bathrooms, where the elegance of Granite counters enhances both functionality and aesthetic appeal.

Key facts

• 7,562 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community: Quail Run CIA / UPMC; Annual association fee of $413

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first level); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1982; Composition roof; Unknown construction materials
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 18); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgar Glover Jr El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 380 students, 87% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 35% district-wide (53 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $339 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10656% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,528 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,529
• List price: $242,000
• Delta: 5.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8618 Quail Vista Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+4%)	3mo	$267,000	$135	71
16323 Quail Echo Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+4%)	2mo	$269,000	$136	63
16610 Quail Prairie Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-14%)	4mo	$239,500	$146	62
16718 Running Quail Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-11%)	1mo	$235,000	$139	60
16626 Quail Run Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-14%)	6mo	$210,000	$128	60
8402 Bird Meadow Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-13%)	6mo	$249,900	$150	56
2422 Doverglen Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,848 (-3%)	1mo	$249,000	$135	53
8330 Blue Quail Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,113 (+11%)	9mo	$250,000	$118	52
2823 Green Meadow Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,991 (+5%)	11mo	$289,900	$146	50
16327 Quail Echo Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,113 (+11%)	4mo	$220,000	$104	48
16331 Hunting Dog Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-13%)	7mo	$265,000	$161	45
16338 Clay Pigeon Ct	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,672 (-12%)	11mo	$280,000	$167	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,159
• Equity at exit: $63,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-45,242
• Equity at exit: $71,456

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$466 /mo · $5,593/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,367

Max offer price $198,528

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-178	+0% $-246	+5% $-315	+10% $-383
Rent	-10% $-408	-5% $-327	+0% $-246	+5% $-165	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-185	base $-246	+0.5pp $-309	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	44d	1	0.58mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.74mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	44d	1	0.80mi
2222 Mountshire Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,700	$1.19	21d	1	1.00mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	21d	1	1.02mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	6d	1	1.12mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	13d	1	1.15mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	44d	1	1.18mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	20d	1	1.28mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	13d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $242,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $242,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $242,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $2,150
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $2,250
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $242,000 Active 729-char remark
17. 2026-04-25
    historical $2,100
18. 2026-04-21
    historical
19. 2026-04-21
    price $235,000
20. 2026-04-16
    price $240,000
21. 2026-02-19
    price $2,100
22. 2026-02-18
    price $235,000
23. 2026-01-23
    price $240,000
24. 2026-01-16
    price $2,200
25. 2026-01-11
    listed $2,300
26. 2026-01-11
    price $250,000
27. 2025-12-12
    listed $270,000 Active
28. 2024-05-10
    historical $2,200
29. 2024-04-04
    listed $2,200
30. 2024-03-07
    soldstatus
31. 2024-03-04
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    8203 Lone Quail is more than just a residence; it is a promising investment opportunity that combines modern design, functionality, and a prime location. Don't miss the chance to make this renovated gem your next successful venture in the world of real estate. Located in the sought-after Quail Rain community, residents can enjoy the benefits of a tranquil neighborhood while still being within close proximity to essential amenities, shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Upon entering, you are greeted by the inviting charm of high ceilings that lend an airy and spacious ambiance to the entire home. The seamless flow of wood plank vinyl floors throughout the living areas creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, setting the stage for comfortable living. The heart of this home lies in its thoughtfully upgraded kitchen and bathrooms, where the elegance of Granite counters enhances both functionality and aesthetic appeal.

32. 2024-02-16
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    8203 Lone Quail is more than just a residence; it is a promising investment opportunity that combines modern design, functionality, and a prime location. Don't miss the chance to make this renovated gem your next successful venture in the world of real estate. Located in the sought-after Quail Rain community, residents can enjoy the benefits of a tranquil neighborhood while still being within close proximity to essential amenities, shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Upon entering, you are greeted by the inviting charm of high ceilings that lend an airy and spacious ambiance to the entire home. The seamless flow of wood plank vinyl floors throughout the living areas creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, setting the stage for comfortable living. The heart of this home lies in its thoughtfully upgraded kitchen and bathrooms, where the elegance of Granite counters enhances both functionality and aesthetic appeal.

33. 2024-02-07
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    8203 Lone Quail is more than just a residence; it is a promising investment opportunity that combines modern design, functionality, and a prime location. Don't miss the chance to make this renovated gem your next successful venture in the world of real estate. Located in the sought-after Quail Rain community, residents can enjoy the benefits of a tranquil neighborhood while still being within close proximity to essential amenities, shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Upon entering, you are greeted by the inviting charm of high ceilings that lend an airy and spacious ambiance to the entire home. The seamless flow of wood plank vinyl floors throughout the living areas creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, setting the stage for comfortable living. The heart of this home lies in its thoughtfully upgraded kitchen and bathrooms, where the elegance of Granite counters enhances both functionality and aesthetic appeal.

34. 2024-01-30
    listed $237,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    8203 Lone Quail is more than just a residence; it is a promising investment opportunity that combines modern design, functionality, and a prime location. Don't miss the chance to make this renovated gem your next successful venture in the world of real estate. Located in the sought-after Quail Rain community, residents can enjoy the benefits of a tranquil neighborhood while still being within close proximity to essential amenities, shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Upon entering, you are greeted by the inviting charm of high ceilings that lend an airy and spacious ambiance to the entire home. The seamless flow of wood plank vinyl floors throughout the living areas creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, setting the stage for comfortable living. The heart of this home lies in its thoughtfully upgraded kitchen and bathrooms, where the elegance of Granite counters enhances both functionality and aesthetic appeal.

35. 2021-07-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,593 · $466/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,593 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$5,593
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$7,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,701
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $2,150 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed for Rent $2,250 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $242,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-02-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-30 Listed $237,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,593 · +29.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.