2513 Conroe Rd · Celina, TX 75009

$318,829

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 2025 5,489 sqft lot Est $308k · at est. $105/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Legacy Hills - Nash Floorplan - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while two secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2927 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $280,654 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,918
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2405 Greenbelt Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,822 (0%)	0mo	$316,999	$174	94
2409 Greenbelt Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (+6%)	2mo	$324,999	$169	79
2509 Greenbelt Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (+6%)	3mo	$325,999	$169	78
3100 Arthurdale St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-2%)	3mo	$330,990	$186	69
2417 Lost Creek Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+14%)	2mo	$329,399	$158	66
2605 Lost Creek Way	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+14%)	2mo	$335,224	$161	66
2601 Lost Creek Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+14%)	3mo	$327,824	$157	66
2508 Lost Creek Way	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+14%)	3mo	$326,399	$157	65
2401 Greenbelt Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+14%)	1mo	$352,999	$169	64
2517 Greenbelt Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+14%)	4mo	$331,349	$159	63
1413 Buchanan Way	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (+6%)	1mo	$336,999	$175	60
2020 Beeflower St	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,032 (+12%)	2mo	$359,990	$177	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-65,590
• Equity at exit: $47,538

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-95,945
• Equity at exit: $27,567

Cash invested: $89,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2927
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,672
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,782/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,922

Max offer price $305,634

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $19	+0% $-91	+5% $-201	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-202	+0% $-91	+5% $20	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $-10	base $-91	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,707
• Closing costs: $9,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,300	$1.57	0d	1	0.53mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	45d	1	0.54mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	0d	1	0.61mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	45d	1	0.61mi
7592 Rawhide Rd Celina, TX	2.0	2.0	2360	$4,950	$2.10	45d	1	1.15mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,450	$1.10	0d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $318,829 Pending 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $318,829 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $318,829 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $318,829 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $318,829 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $318,829 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
8. 2026-03-30
   status Active
9. 2025-12-04
   price $300,999
10. 2025-12-02
    price $307,999
11. 2025-11-26
    price $313,999
12. 2025-11-21
    price $317,999
13. 2025-11-14
    price $319,999
14. 2025-09-24
    status Pending
15. 2025-09-23
    price $318,829
16. 2025-09-22
    price $321,539
17. 2025-09-19
    price $331,139
18. 2025-09-16
    price $337,549
19. 2025-09-16
    price $334,549
20. 2025-09-04
    status Active
21. 2025-09-03
    status Pending
22. 2025-08-22
    price $321,499
23. 2025-08-19
    price $325,099
24. 2025-08-16
    price $328,699
25. 2025-08-13
    price $335,799
26. 2025-08-12
    price $355,799
27. 2025-08-10
    price $364,349
28. 2025-08-07
    price $371,299
29. 2025-07-09
    listed $371,799 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,859
• − Property taxes: −$4,782
• − Insurance: −$1,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,694
• − Management: −$2,694
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$9,275
• Taxable loss: −$6,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,555
• After-tax cash flow: $461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $300,999 NTREIS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $307,999 NTREIS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $313,999 NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $317,999 NTREIS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $319,999 NTREIS
• 2025-09-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $318,829 NTREIS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $321,539 NTREIS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $331,139 NTREIS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $337,549 NTREIS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $334,549 NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-09-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $321,499 NTREIS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $325,099 NTREIS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $328,699 NTREIS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $335,799 NTREIS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $355,799 NTREIS
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $364,349 NTREIS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $371,299 NTREIS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $371,799 NTREIS