Ridge (Independence Hill) Plan · Morristown, TN 37814

$72,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,153 sqft · Manufactured · 273 Days on market

Good condition $630/mo HOA · 41% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Cash flow +1.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Independence Hill boasts a wide range of amenities that cater to the diverse needs of its residents. Located only minutes from Morgantown Municipal Airport, Interstates 79 and 68, and the University of West Virginia Campus, the community provides a feeling of quiet and peaceful country living with big city amenities. Experience the rolling hills and beautiful views of the community. Just outside the front entrance, a whole world of shopping, dining and recreation opportunities await. An ideal location in Morgantown places you only moments from the shopping and dining pleasures of Suncrest Town Centre or Morgantown Mall, several golf courses, West Virginia University Art Museum, Hazel Ruby McQuain Riverfront Park, and both Mountaineer Field and West Virginia Coliseum, where you can see University football, basketball, and volleyball games. Other nearby attractions include several golf courses, West Virginia University Art Museum, Hazel Ruby McQuain Riverfront Park, Mountaineer Field, and West Virginia Coliseum, where you can see University football, basketball, and volleyball games. The Rail Trail offers hiking along the scenic Deckers Creek and the Monongahela River. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, On-Site Management, Pet-Friendly, Picnic Area, and Playground

Key facts

• Suncrest town centre
• Mountaineer field
• Morgantown mall

Tags

• MORGANTOWN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
• INTERSTATES 79 AND 68
• SUNCREST TOWN CENTRE
• MORGANTOWN MALL
• MOUNTAINEER FIELD
• WEST VIRGINIA COLISEUM

🏗️ New construction. The $72,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $208,219.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-865 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.9% in Morristown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Hamblen County (urban): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #57 of 139 in TN (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 330 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Hamblen County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,235 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.80%
• DSCR: 0.21
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,219
• List price: $72,995
• Delta: -64.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2426 Buffalo Trail Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	11mo	$230,000	$184	55
1003 De Vault St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	21mo	$214,000	$191	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -51.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-88,402
• Equity at exit: $31,046

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.51×
• Total profit: $-146,225
• Equity at exit: $18,003

Cash invested: $58,301 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37814

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$260 /mo · $3,123/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,619

Max offer price $83,100

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,055
• Closing costs: $6,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $630 · $7,560/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $72,995 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,995 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,995 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,995 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,995 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $72,995 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $72,995 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,995 Active 263 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,995 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,995 Active 261 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $72,995 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,995 Active 256 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,995 Active 255 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,995 Active 254 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $72,995 Active 253 DOM
16. 2025-09-19
    listed $72,995 Active 1296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1296 chars)

    Independence Hill boasts a wide range of amenities that cater to the diverse needs of its residents. Located only minutes from Morgantown Municipal Airport, Interstates 79 and 68, and the University of West Virginia Campus, the community provides a feeling of quiet and peaceful country living with big city amenities. Experience the rolling hills and beautiful views of the community. Just outside the front entrance, a whole world of shopping, dining and recreation opportunities await. An ideal location in Morgantown places you only moments from the shopping and dining pleasures of Suncrest Town Centre or Morgantown Mall, several golf courses, West Virginia University Art Museum, Hazel Ruby McQuain Riverfront Park, and both Mountaineer Field and West Virginia Coliseum, where you can see University football, basketball, and volleyball games. Other nearby attractions include several golf courses, West Virginia University Art Museum, Hazel Ruby McQuain Riverfront Park, Mountaineer Field, and West Virginia Coliseum, where you can see University football, basketball, and volleyball games. The Rail Trail offers hiking along the scenic Deckers Creek and the Monongahela River. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, On-Site Management, Pet-Friendly, Picnic Area, and Playground

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,663
• − Property taxes: −$3,123
• − Insurance: −$1,041
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$6,057
• Taxable loss: −$14,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,379
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New paint in living room and bedrooms — Enhances space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in living room and bedrooms — Enhances space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamblen County
• NCES district ID: 4700001
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,361
• Composite: 25.61/100
• National rank: #7412
• State rank: #57 of 139 in TN

Livability — Morristown

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #14625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morristown, TN
• County: Hamblen County · 35,239 people
• City population: 35,239
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• Population (ZIP): 35,239
• Household income: $55,650
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (Hamblen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,185 people
• By 2030: 65,707 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 66,189 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 65,798 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 62,642 · -3.9%
• By 2100: 55,702 · -14.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamblen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.1% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.0 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+46.4 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.88%
• Current HPI: 299.6486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Listed $72,995 Zillow