12953 SW Forli Way · Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$325,390

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,506 sqft · Land · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 1,917 sqft lot $115/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open-concept townhome with a central kitchen island, perfect for prepping dinner while entertaining. Upstairs, an oversized loft suits game nights or a home office, plus a private primary suite with a large bath and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• $115 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: HERS Index Score and Indoor airPLUS verification; Green features include energy-efficient appliances, HVAC, insulation, lighting and thermostat, plus integrated pest management; Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Community pool; Clubhouse; Community room; On-site manager; Management; Sidewalks; HOA dues (monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage with garage door opener; Covered parking for 1; 2 open parking spaces (driveway)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Townhouse; New construction; Two stories; Entry level living area; North-facing
• Construction: Built by Meritage Homes (model: Pompano); Block, concrete and frame construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Open patio; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified freezer; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; ENERGY STAR qualified washer; ENERGY STAR qualified dryer; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($828/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 835 students, 70% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); St. Lucie West Centennial High (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 2,766 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1149 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,225 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-48,976
• Equity at exit: $48,517

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-39,613
• Equity at exit: $28,134

Cash invested: $91,109 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1149
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,706
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,405/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,815

Max offer price $325,390

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $161	+0% $69	+5% $-23	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-46	+0% $69	+5% $184	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $152	base $69	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,348
• Closing costs: $9,762
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12845 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,800	$1.59	16d	1	0.10mi
12865 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,700	$1.61	23d	1	0.10mi
13138 SW Valletta Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1727	$2,685	$1.55	16d	25	0.11mi
9670 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,700	$1.80	16d	1	0.16mi
9509 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,800	$1.86	25d	1	0.34mi
9796 SW Santini Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1929	$3,500	$1.81	16d	1	0.44mi
12271 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	25d	1	0.45mi
12134 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	25d	1	0.51mi
12500 Roma Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,657	$2.74	16d	7	0.62mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	25d	1	0.75mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	23d	1	0.75mi
11590 SW Roma Cir Port St. Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1179	$3,071	$2.60	16d	36	0.75mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 7-105 Port St. Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,660	$2.10	16d	1	0.79mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 9-303 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,410	$2.15	16d	1	0.79mi
12813 SW Ambra St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1828	$3,200	$1.75	16d	1	0.92mi
9184 SW Esule Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,750	$1.54	16d	1	0.94mi
9084 SW Arco Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,500	$2.11	25d	1	0.96mi
11344 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$3,700	$1.74	16d	1	1.02mi
9630 SW Flowermound Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,495	$1.42	16d	1	1.07mi
11267 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1667	$3,200	$1.92	25d	1	1.10mi
10936 SW Vasari Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.5	2100	$3,450	$1.64	16d	1	1.11mi
10231 SW Latium Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,900	$2.30	25d	1	1.13mi
11477 SW Patterson St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,600	$1.58	25d	1	1.14mi
14058 SW Surina St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1894	$2,990	$1.58	16d	1	1.15mi
11160 SW Lunata Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1968	$3,850	$1.96	25d	1	1.15mi
10057 SW Newberry Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,500	$1.52	23d	1	1.18mi
9728 SW Eastbrook Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,300	$1.73	16d	1	1.26mi
14143 SW Safi Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,900	$1.76	16d	1	1.28mi
10736 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,700	$1.38	25d	1	1.29mi
9282 SW Miracoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1932	$4,900	$2.54	25d	1	1.30mi
14075 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1916	$2,800	$1.46	25d	1	1.32mi
12401 SW Arabella Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,650	$1.38	25d	1	1.33mi
10495 SW Orana Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$3,000	$1.81	25d	1	1.34mi
14122 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,700	$1.61	16d	1	1.35mi
14162 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1754	$2,650	$1.51	25d	1	1.36mi
10695 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,850	$1.49	16d	1	1.37mi
10574 SW Cambria Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$3,000	$1.57	25d	1	1.42mi
10241 SW Newberry Ave Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1448	$2,905	$2.01	16d	29	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $325,390 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,390 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $325,390 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $325,390 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $325,390 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $325,390 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-04-27
   listed $325,390 Active
8. 2026-04-11
   listed $325,390 Active 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Open-concept townhome with a central kitchen island, perfect for prepping dinner while entertaining. Upstairs, an oversized loft suits game nights or a home office, plus a private primary suite with a large bath and walk-in closet.

9. 2025-10-08
   soldstatus $11,550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,405 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,701 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,227
• − Property taxes: −$2,405
• − Insurance: −$2,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,786
• − Management: −$2,786
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$9,466
• Taxable loss: −$4,647
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,115
• After-tax cash flow: $1,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 597.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $325,390 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $325,390 Zillow
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $11,550,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+249.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,405 · +718.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.