8441 Forest Ridge Dr · San Antonio, TX 78239

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · Townhouse public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1984 4,312 sqft lot $146/sqft · 13% below area Est $143k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This one-story townhouse features dramatic vaulted ceilings in the living room, two bedrooms, a full bath, a nicely sized kitchen, and an adjacent dining area. Outside, the home offers a private, fully fenced backyard and a detached one-car garage. The property is currently leased through the end of May 2026.

Key facts

• Vaulted ceilings
• Garage
• Built 1984

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• PRIVATE FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Currently being leased (lease expires May 31, 2026); For sale
• HOA & community: Located in the CROWNWOOD subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: City water and sewer
• Home design: Pre-owned property; Approximately 42 years old
• Construction: Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Siding exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Island kitchen; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with ceiling fan; Second bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smoke alarm; Open floor plan; Living/dining room combination; Eat-in kitchen with island; Ground level / no steps; Cable TV available; High-speed internet; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($884/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Miller Point El (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 606 students, 79% FRL); Judson H S (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,666 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.53%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,093
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -12.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7918 Falcon Rdg	0.08mi	2/1.0	800 (-6%)	6mo	$149,000	$186	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-19,115
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-24,379
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78239

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,299/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8439 Forest Ridge Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$1,095	$1.16	44d	1	0.03mi
8448 Dixon Ridge Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	4d	1	0.09mi
8416 Dixon Ridge Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,225	$1.11	3d	1	0.14mi
8406 Forest Ridge Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1121	$1,500	$1.34	43d	1	0.15mi
531 Erna Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1002	$1,350	$1.35	11d	1	0.57mi
509 Meadow Frg Unit A Converse, TX	3.0	1.5	950	$925	$0.97	14d	1	0.84mi
509 Meadow Frg Unit B Converse, TX	3.0	1.0	950	$925	$0.97	14d	1	0.84mi
7467 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0	1.0	735	$1,020	$1.39	43d	1	0.89mi
7115 Glen Ter Apt 3 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	625	$825	$1.32	12d	1	0.91mi
7115 Glen Ter Apt 3 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	625	$825	$1.32	43d	1	0.91mi
7115 Glen Ter Unit 4 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	576	$700	$1.22	4d	1	0.91mi
7347 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,323	$1.34	4d	1	0.97mi
7461 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,342	$1.54	1d	27	0.98mi
517 Oak Dr Converse, TX	3.0	1.5	894	$1,500	$1.68	24d	1	1.06mi
115 N Meadow St Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1048	$1,650	$1.57	43d	1	1.11mi
320 Station St Unit 101 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	877	$825	$0.94	12d	1	1.12mi
7006 Glen Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,495	$1.44	43d	1	1.19mi
8355 Crestway Dr Unit 610 Converse, TX	1.0	1.0	556	$747	$1.34	3d	1	1.19mi
8355 Crestway Dr Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	865	$947	$1.09	3d	1	1.19mi
7614 Glen Hurst San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	2d	1	1.20mi
7643 Glen Shire San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,475	$1.70	24d	1	1.21mi
7923 Langport San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1095	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	1.25mi
202 Ash Dr Unit 103 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$995	$1.11	24d	1	1.28mi
7855 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,425	$1.63	20d	17	1.30mi
7855 Kitty Hawk Rd Unit 610 Converse, TX	1.0	1.0	702	$1,067	$1.52	2d	1	1.31mi
7855 Kitty Hawk Rd Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,177	$1.24	2d	1	1.31mi
7603 Glen Vis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,200	$1.22	7d	1	1.31mi
301 Converse Center St Converse, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,184	$1.21	43d	1	1.32mi
810 Station St Unit 1 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$899	$0.83	24d	1	1.33mi
810 Station St Apt 3 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$825	$0.76	4d	1	1.33mi
7128 Elm Cv San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	661	$1,097	$1.66	4d	1	1.33mi
812 Station St Converse, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	24d	1	1.34mi
7037 Elm Cv San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	661	$1,203	$1.82	4d	1	1.35mi
9205 Farm to Market Road 78 Unit 610 Converse, TX	1.0	1.0	597	$941	$1.58	3d	1	1.35mi
9205 Farm to Market Road 78 Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$1,051	$1.17	3d	1	1.35mi
7125 Elm Cv San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	664	$1,150	$1.73	11d	1	1.36mi
7861 Kitty Hawk Rd Unit 6102 Universal City, TX	1.0	1.0	748	$1,069	$1.43	43d	1	1.45mi
7812 Broadwick San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	884	$1,075	$1.22	17d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $124,900 New 310-char remark
15. 2023-02-02
    soldstatus
16. 2022-09-30
    soldstatus
17. 2020-04-27
    soldstatus
18. 2020-04-15
    historical
19. 2020-03-17
    price $87,500
20. 2020-02-29
    price $89,500
21. 2020-01-29
    listed $89,999 New
22. 2008-02-29
    historical
23. 2007-08-29
    listed $49,900
24. 1991-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,299 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,299 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,299
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$275
• After-tax cash flow: $1,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,609
• Household income: $70,098
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 488.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 30% Two or more races 20% Black 16% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.13%
• Current HPI: 242.1272
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+150.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $124,900 LERA
• 2023-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2020-03-17 Price Changed $87,500 LERA
• 2020-02-29 Price Changed $89,500 LERA
• 2020-01-29 Listed $89,999 LERA
• 2008-02-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2007-08-29 Listed $49,900 LERA
• 1991-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,299 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.