1419 Hillchase Rd · Jasper, AL 35503

$65,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2001 Fair condition 3.40 ac lot $54/sqft · 46% below area Est $123k · 46% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3BR, 2 BA single wide situated on 3.4 secluded acres. This fixer upper offers great potential for the right buyer looking for a project or investment opportunity. Peaceful setting with plenty of room to make it your own.

Key facts

• 3.4 acre lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Metal roof; 3.4 acres lot

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.5% vs local median 3.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#228 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Curry Elementary School (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 547 students, 64% FRL); Curry Middle School (math 10% / reading 46%, grade F, #141 of 257 statewide, top 55%, 359 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,923 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.19%
• DSCR: 4.52
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,000
• List price: $65,900
• Delta: -46.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Kelley Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	5mo	$123,000	$101	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $66,911
• Equity at exit: $9,826

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.58×
• Total profit: $158,263
• Equity at exit: $5,698

Cash invested: $18,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35503

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$82 /mo · $988/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $1,218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $576

Max offer price $65,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,263	-5% $1,240	+0% $1,218	+5% $1,195	+10% $1,172
Rent	-10% $1,050	-5% $1,134	+0% $1,218	+5% $1,301	+10% $1,385
Rate	-1.0pp $1,251	-0.5pp $1,234	base $1,218	+0.5pp $1,201	+1.0pp $1,183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,475
• Closing costs: $1,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $69,900 Active 220-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,691
• − Property taxes: −$988
• − Insurance: −$330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − Depreciation: −$1,917
• Taxable income: $14,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,461
• After-tax cash flow: $11,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including major work on the siding, roof, flooring, and interior walls/paint. Painting and structural repairs would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Aged appearance
• Major flooring — Likely aged and in need of replacement
• Major interior walls/paint — Likely aged and in need of repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both roof replacement — Improves structural integrity and enhances curb appeal
• Both siding replacement — Enhances structural integrity and curb appeal
• Both flooring replacement — Improves living conditions and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Aged appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Likely aged and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Likely aged and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both roof replacement — Improves structural integrity and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both siding replacement — Enhances structural integrity and curb appeal ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Improves living conditions and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 0103450
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,664
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8321
• State rank: #89 of 129 in AL

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #17152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,927
• Population (ZIP): 9,601

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.26%
• Current HPI: 172.9286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $65,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $69,900 Walker County Area MLS