20715 Main Rd · Orient, NY 11957

$1,175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 1945 0.33 ac lot $588/sqft · 21% below area Est $1487k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

You have to come back and see this house with me because it’s got that real “grandma’s classic 1940s winter weekend” energy in the best way that has been on the short list feeling. Picture this: it’s snowing outside, and we’re posted up in the big living room with the granite fireplace going. Knotty pine paneling, bookshelves built in on both sides of the hearth, and that warm glow that makes you feel settled. We’ve got Monopoly spread out on the coffee table, a huge bowl of popcorn (the legit kind made on the stove), and a record playing… then playing again… then somehow playing again because that’s what happens in houses like this. And of course there’s always that one person in our group who breaks out a slide projector, vacation slides from back in the day with the vintage clothing, the hair styles, taking in the moments. This house just fits that vibe perfectly. Then you walk into the sunroom and it changes gears: slate floors under your feet, water views straight out toward the beach, and it becomes the reading and lounging zone. Newspapers, magazines, tuna melts, tomato and rice soup. It’s basically the best relaxing room. Outside, it’s the kind of winter that makes you want to actually do stuff: we can go sledding down Munn Lane, then heading to the Causeway beach to see what the sea rolled in, perfect for seaglass collecting. That whole shoreline exploration where you come back with cold cheeks and a pocket full of little treasures. The layout is great too, wood floors through most of the house, and there’s that first-floor bedroom space (or den) with water views across the street that ties the whole country home feeling. It’s cozy, practical, and somehow still feels special. And the garage… three bays, but it doesn’t feel like “just a garage.” It feels like a workshop where projects are always in motion. The kind of place where sleds, bikes, paddleboards, clam rakes, fishing poles, beach chairs, and coolers all have a home. Here’s the kicker: it comes with two pieces of land, including the waterfront property across the street. So those water views? Protected. There’s about 50 feet of sandy beach, and the path to the water is right across the street, perfect for kayaking or paddleboarding in the summer. And sitting on the hill, the elevation is high enough that you’re not sitting stressing about flood issues. In the summer you’re up on the hill watching fireworks in Orient Village, with views from the living room, sunroom, and that main-floor bedroom/den. It’s peaceful, authentic, and it feels connected to the real local story—ice boat racing off Narrow River Road, oyster farming, clamming, fishing… all of it. This is what relaxation looks like when “country” means coastal, classic, and this is what we wanted.

Key facts

• Granite fireplace
• Slate floors
• Water views

Tags

• GRANITE FIREPLACE
• KNOTTY PINE PANELING
• BUILT IN BOOKSHELVES
• SLATE FLOORS
• WATER VIEWS
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.18M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.05M (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.05M (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,080 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $126k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $118k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $329k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$202k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.10M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $1.18M implies a 879% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,047,637 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,487,431
• List price: $1,175,000
• Delta: -21.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
275 Munn Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	2,075 (+4%)	1mo	$1,260,000	$607	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $707,952
• Equity at exit: $1,058,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $2,030,188
• Equity at exit: $2,282,767

Cash invested: $329,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11957

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,162
• Tax from tax record: −$551 /mo · $6,608/yr
• Insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,200
• Net cashflow: $1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,117

Max offer price $1,175,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,739	-5% $1,407	+0% $1,074	+5% $742	+10% $409
Rent	-10% $247	-5% $660	+0% $1,074	+5% $1,488	+10% $1,902
Rate	-1.0pp $1,666	-0.5pp $1,373	base $1,074	+0.5pp $770	+1.0pp $460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $293,750
• Closing costs: $35,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2100 Youngs Rd Orient, NY	5.0	3.0	3000	$28,000	$9.33	44d	1	0.45mi
1800 Village Ln Orient, NY	3.0	2.5	2200	$7,000	$3.18	44d	1	0.53mi
1855 Village Ln Orient, NY	3.0	2.0	2556	$15,000	$5.87	44d	1	0.56mi
1390 Willow Terrace Ln Orient, NY	4.0	4.5	2800	$10,000	$3.57	25d	1	1.00mi
11930 Main Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 2945-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2945 chars)

   You have to come back and see this house with me because it’s got that real “grandma’s classic 1940s winter weekend” energy in the best way that has been on the short list feeling. Picture this: it’s snowing outside, and we’re posted up in the big living room with the granite fireplace going. Knotty pine paneling, bookshelves built in on both sides of the hearth, and that warm glow that makes you feel settled. We’ve got Monopoly spread out on the coffee table, a huge bowl of popcorn (the legit kind made on the stove), and a record playing… then playing again… then somehow playing again because that’s what happens in houses like this. And of course there’s always that one person in our group who breaks out a slide projector, vacation slides from back in the day with the vintage clothing, the hair styles, taking in the moments. This house just fits that vibe perfectly. Then you walk into the sunroom and it changes gears: slate floors under your feet, water views straight out toward the beach, and it becomes the reading and lounging zone. Newspapers, magazines, tuna melts, tomato and rice soup. It’s basically the best relaxing room. Outside, it’s the kind of winter that makes you want to actually do stuff: we can go sledding down Munn Lane, then heading to the Causeway beach to see what the sea rolled in, perfect for seaglass collecting. That whole shoreline exploration where you come back with cold cheeks and a pocket full of little treasures. The layout is great too, wood floors through most of the house, and there’s that first-floor bedroom space (or den) with water views across the street that ties the whole country home feeling. It’s cozy, practical, and somehow still feels special. And the garage… three bays, but it doesn’t feel like “just a garage.” It feels like a workshop where projects are always in motion. The kind of place where sleds, bikes, paddleboards, clam rakes, fishing poles, beach chairs, and coolers all have a home. Here’s the kicker: it comes with two pieces of land, including the waterfront property across the street. So those water views? Protected. There’s about 50 feet of sandy beach, and the path to the water is right across the street, perfect for kayaking or paddleboarding in the summer. And sitting on the hill, the elevation is high enough that you’re not sitting stressing about flood issues. In the summer you’re up on the hill watching fireworks in Orient Village, with views from the living room, sunroom, and that main-floor bedroom/den. It’s peaceful, authentic, and it feels connected to the real local story—ice boat racing off Narrow River Road, oyster farming, clamming, fishing… all of it. This is what relaxation looks like when “country” means coastal, classic, and this is what we wanted.

2. 2026-02-23
   listed $1,175,000 Active 2945-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2945 chars)

   You have to come back and see this house with me because it’s got that real “grandma’s classic 1940s winter weekend” energy in the best way that has been on the short list feeling. Picture this: it’s snowing outside, and we’re posted up in the big living room with the granite fireplace going. Knotty pine paneling, bookshelves built in on both sides of the hearth, and that warm glow that makes you feel settled. We’ve got Monopoly spread out on the coffee table, a huge bowl of popcorn (the legit kind made on the stove), and a record playing… then playing again… then somehow playing again because that’s what happens in houses like this. And of course there’s always that one person in our group who breaks out a slide projector, vacation slides from back in the day with the vintage clothing, the hair styles, taking in the moments. This house just fits that vibe perfectly. Then you walk into the sunroom and it changes gears: slate floors under your feet, water views straight out toward the beach, and it becomes the reading and lounging zone. Newspapers, magazines, tuna melts, tomato and rice soup. It’s basically the best relaxing room. Outside, it’s the kind of winter that makes you want to actually do stuff: we can go sledding down Munn Lane, then heading to the Causeway beach to see what the sea rolled in, perfect for seaglass collecting. That whole shoreline exploration where you come back with cold cheeks and a pocket full of little treasures. The layout is great too, wood floors through most of the house, and there’s that first-floor bedroom space (or den) with water views across the street that ties the whole country home feeling. It’s cozy, practical, and somehow still feels special. And the garage… three bays, but it doesn’t feel like “just a garage.” It feels like a workshop where projects are always in motion. The kind of place where sleds, bikes, paddleboards, clam rakes, fishing poles, beach chairs, and coolers all have a home. Here’s the kicker: it comes with two pieces of land, including the waterfront property across the street. So those water views? Protected. There’s about 50 feet of sandy beach, and the path to the water is right across the street, perfect for kayaking or paddleboarding in the summer. And sitting on the hill, the elevation is high enough that you’re not sitting stressing about flood issues. In the summer you’re up on the hill watching fireworks in Orient Village, with views from the living room, sunroom, and that main-floor bedroom/den. It’s peaceful, authentic, and it feels connected to the real local story—ice boat racing off Narrow River Road, oyster farming, clamming, fishing… all of it. This is what relaxation looks like when “country” means coastal, classic, and this is what we wanted.

3. 2026-01-03
   historical
4. 2025-07-31
   price $1,200,000
5. 2025-07-31
   status Active
6. 2025-05-05
   price $1,499,000
7. 2024-05-13
   listed $1,600,000 Active
8. 2024-05-02
   historical
9. 2000-06-06
   soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,608 · $551/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,233 · $1,103/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,625/yr (+$552/mo · 100.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $125,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$65,818
• − Property taxes: −$6,608
• − Insurance: −$5,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,057
• − Management: −$10,057
• − Depreciation: −$34,182
• Taxable loss: −$6,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,651
• After-tax cash flow: $14,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — Orient

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #21725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orient, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,152

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.41%
• Current HPI: 265.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+879.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $1,175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $1,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $1,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-13 Listed $1,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-02 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,608 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.