557 Compass Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1942 5,000 sqft lot Est $279k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of the largest homes in the neighborhood; over 1200 sq ft of livable space. Includes many upgrades; dual pane replacement windows, HVAC system only 7 years old, the roof is approximately 9 years old, electrical upgrades were made in 2008; 200 amp service. The seller is still in the process of making cosmetic improvements. Come and take a look at this home; you will be impressed.

Key facts

• Level yard
• 5,000 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FREESTANDING GAS FIREPLACE
• LEVEL YARD
• 2-CAR CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• SHED FOR ADDITIONAL STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Victory Villa Elementary (math 8% / reading 13%, grade F, #590 of 860 statewide, top 70%, 659 students, 75% FRL); Middle River Middle (math 5% / reading 32%, grade F, #159 of 225 statewide, top 73%, 978 students, 62% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 39% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 252 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $225k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,617 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,328
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
557 Compass Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,204 (0%)	1mo	$247,000	$205	99
559 Compass Rd	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-4%)	14mo	$220,000	$190	82
563 Compass Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,164 (-3%)	14mo	$270,000	$232	77
29 Transverse Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-0%)	11mo	$324,900	$271	68
4 Manifold Ct	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,102 (-8%)	23mo	$220,000	$200	65
501 Middle River Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (-1%)	22mo	$185,000	$156	58
320 Harding Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	8mo	$242,500	$211	58
67 Torque Way	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-12%)	13mo	$285,000	$268	54
13 Helicopter	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,148 (-5%)	19mo	$259,900	$226	42
53 Longeron Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-13%)	7mo	$260,000	$248	39
10 Taxi Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,035 (-14%)	12mo	$300,000	$290	38
125 Dihedral Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	13mo	$300,000	$284	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-34,137
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,272
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,046 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,853/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $169	+0% $105	+5% $41	+10% $-22
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $24	+0% $105	+5% $186	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $162	base $105	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42 Holcumb Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,200	$1.52	46d	1	0.40mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	4d	1	0.43mi
22 Nakota Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1194	$2,000	$1.68	46d	1	0.50mi
1513 Aldeney Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	26d	1	0.51mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	24d	1	0.54mi
1542 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,800	$1.47	0d	1	0.57mi
201 Middleway Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,571	$2.09	4d	24	0.58mi
9901 Langs Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,795	$1.89	46d	10	0.61mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	24d	1	0.66mi
303 Holly Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	739	$1,510	$2.04	0d	10	0.73mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	46d	1	1.06mi
9 Windsor Way Rosedale, MD	2.0	1.0	576	$1,400	$2.43	0d	10	1.13mi
8 King Henry Cir Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,895	$1.87	46d	1	1.13mi
8908 Golden Tree Ln Essex, MD	4.0	1.5	1466	$3,000	$2.05	46d	1	1.20mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	46d	1	1.20mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	7d	1	1.21mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	26d	1	1.25mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	46d	1	1.28mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	46d	1	1.28mi
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	24d	1	1.28mi
9206 Oswald Way Rosedale, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,018	$2.33	0d	21	1.31mi
326 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	4.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	46d	1	1.34mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	26d	1	1.34mi
5326 King Arthur Cir Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,300	$1.62	26d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2018-08-29
   soldstatus $130,000
4. 2018-08-17
   soldstatus $130,000 Sold 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   One of the largest homes in the neighborhood; over 1200 sq ft of livable space. Includes many upgrades; dual pane replacement windows, HVAC system only 7 years old, the roof is approximately 9 years old, electrical upgrades were made in 2008; 200 amp service. The seller is still in the process of making cosmetic improvements. Come and take a look at this home; you will be impressed.

5. 2018-08-17
   soldstatus $130,000 Closed 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   One of the largest homes in the neighborhood; over 1200 sq ft of livable space. Includes many upgrades; dual pane replacement windows, HVAC system only 7 years old, the roof is approximately 9 years old, electrical upgrades were made in 2008; 200 amp service. The seller is still in the process of making cosmetic improvements. Come and take a look at this home; you will be impressed.

6. 2018-07-19
   status Pending 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   One of the largest homes in the neighborhood; over 1200 sq ft of livable space. Includes many upgrades; dual pane replacement windows, HVAC system only 7 years old, the roof is approximately 9 years old, electrical upgrades were made in 2008; 200 amp service. The seller is still in the process of making cosmetic improvements. Come and take a look at this home; you will be impressed.

7. 2018-07-09
   historical Active Under Contract 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   One of the largest homes in the neighborhood; over 1200 sq ft of livable space. Includes many upgrades; dual pane replacement windows, HVAC system only 7 years old, the roof is approximately 9 years old, electrical upgrades were made in 2008; 200 amp service. The seller is still in the process of making cosmetic improvements. Come and take a look at this home; you will be impressed.

8. 2018-07-09
   status Contingent (No Kick Out) 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   One of the largest homes in the neighborhood; over 1200 sq ft of livable space. Includes many upgrades; dual pane replacement windows, HVAC system only 7 years old, the roof is approximately 9 years old, electrical upgrades were made in 2008; 200 amp service. The seller is still in the process of making cosmetic improvements. Come and take a look at this home; you will be impressed.

9. 2018-07-06
   listed $125,000 Active 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   One of the largest homes in the neighborhood; over 1200 sq ft of livable space. Includes many upgrades; dual pane replacement windows, HVAC system only 7 years old, the roof is approximately 9 years old, electrical upgrades were made in 2008; 200 amp service. The seller is still in the process of making cosmetic improvements. Come and take a look at this home; you will be impressed.

10. 2018-07-06
    listed $125,000 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    One of the largest homes in the neighborhood; over 1200 sq ft of livable space. Includes many upgrades; dual pane replacement windows, HVAC system only 7 years old, the roof is approximately 9 years old, electrical upgrades were made in 2008; 200 amp service. The seller is still in the process of making cosmetic improvements. Come and take a look at this home; you will be impressed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,853 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,853 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,853
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$600
• After-tax cash flow: $1,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+80.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-17 Sold (MLS) $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-17 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MRIS
• 2018-07-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-09 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-09 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-07-06 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-06 Listed $125,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,853 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.