Plan 2343 Modeled Plan · Heartland, TX 75114

$291,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,343 sqft · SingleFamily · 497 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Flex Space * Front porch * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * 9-ft.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Kitchen island
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• KITCHEN TILE BACKSPLASH
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $291,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $414,097.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-746 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 78d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 497 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 497 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.72%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $414,097
• List price: $291,990
• Delta: -29.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3920 Bison Ln	0.21mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,370 (+1%)	3mo	$389,990	$165	77
3009 Finney St	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-6%)	2mo	$346,990	$158	72
3725 Blooming Prairie Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,625 (+12%)	2mo	$340,139	$130	72
3821 Maize Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,054 (-12%)	2mo	$412,960	$201	70
4105 Buffalo Grass Trl	0.22mi	4/2.0	2,062 (-12%)	3mo	$313,895	$152	67
3946 Bison Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,004 (-14%)	2mo	$269,900	$135	65
4031 Bedford Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,625 (+12%)	2mo	$364,422	$139	64
3834 Belleview Pl	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,463 (+5%)	2mo	$399,405	$162	64
3059 Mary Grace Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,385 (+2%)	2mo	$363,040	$152	60
3007 Mary Grace Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,257 (-4%)	1mo	$329,990	$146	56
3512 Hank Dr	0.40mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,128 (-9%)	1mo	$324,990	$153	56
3224 Sioux Trl	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,673 (+14%)	1mo	$315,000	$118	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-114,598
• Equity at exit: $61,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-160,837
• Equity at exit: $35,804

Cash invested: $115,947 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 247 active · 88 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $344,990 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,172
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$518 /mo · $6,211/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,622

Max offer price $306,096

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-460	-5% $-603	+0% $-746	+5% $-889	+10% $-1,033
Rent	-10% $-958	-5% $-852	+0% $-746	+5% $-641	+10% $-535
Rate	-1.0pp $-538	-0.5pp $-641	base $-746	+0.5pp $-854	+1.0pp $-963

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,524
• Closing costs: $12,423
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3829 Walnut Creek Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2370	$3,000	$1.27	0d	1	0.16mi
3011 Temple Gate Ct Crandall, TX	5.0	3.0	2730	$3,300	$1.21	89d	1	0.34mi
3630 Pendleton Ct Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2334	$2,800	$1.20	49d	1	0.35mi
3811 Thomas Plns Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2728	$2,600	$0.95	83d	1	0.36mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,500	$1.42	12d	1	0.40mi
3221 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,450	$1.47	74d	1	0.41mi
3226 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2232	$2,600	$1.16	20d	1	0.42mi
3226 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2232	$3,100	$1.39	63d	1	0.42mi
3226 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,100	$1.29	90d	1	0.42mi
4101 Valley Mills Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,550	$1.12	77d	1	0.43mi
3936 Bellingham Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,100	$1.08	79d	1	0.43mi
3120 Providence Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,200	$1.26	69d	1	0.47mi
3903 Pioneer Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,350	$1.34	82d	1	0.47mi
2915 Acacia Dr Heartland, TX	4.0	2.5	1982	$2,100	$1.06	5d	1	0.49mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	99d	1	0.50mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.5	2885	$2,750	$0.95	106d	1	0.50mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.5	2885	$2,675	$0.93	90d	1	0.50mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.5	2885	$2,575	$0.89	20d	1	0.50mi
3941 Hometown Blvd Unit 3941 Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,400	$1.38	139d	1	0.55mi
3013 Apple Creek Ave Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2279	$2,975	$1.31	20d	1	0.55mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	139d	1	0.55mi
3140 Blacksmith Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,300	$1.28	78d	1	0.57mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	87d	1	0.66mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	111d	1	0.72mi
3018 Montrose Ct Heartland, TX	3.0	3.0	2463	$2,500	$1.02	26d	1	0.74mi
3909 Chesapeake Ln Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,300	$1.31	26d	1	0.74mi
3916 Ford Dr Heartland, TX	4.0	3.0	2484	$2,600	$1.05	116d	1	0.76mi
4121 Gaillardia Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,250	$1.05	114d	1	0.77mi
3948 Mercedes Bnd Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2892	$2,700	$0.93	88d	1	0.80mi
4005 Indian Paintbrush Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2866	$2,700	$0.94	108d	1	0.80mi
3918 Rochelle Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	3.0	2360	$2,600	$1.10	26d	1	0.83mi
3915 Spencer Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	3.0	2255	$2,950	$1.31	26d	1	0.83mi
4115 Indian Paintbrush Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	3.0	2280	$2,225	$0.98	12d	1	0.85mi
4103 Portrush Dr Heartland, TX	4.0	2.5	2760	$2,600	$0.94	20d	1	0.87mi
2236 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,260	$1.08	0d	1	0.87mi
2233 Starstruck Ct Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,299	$1.11	0d	1	0.88mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	120d	1	0.88mi
2938 Montrose Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	26d	1	0.88mi
2938 Montrose Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	20d	1	0.88mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	139d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $291,990 Active 497 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $291,990 Active 496 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $291,990 Active 495 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $291,990 Active 494 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $291,990 Active 493 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $291,990 Active 492 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $291,990 Active 491 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $291,990 Active 490 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 489 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $291,990 Active 488 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $291,990 Active 487 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $291,990 Active 486 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $291,990 Active 485 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $291,990 Active 479 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    pricedays on market $291,990 Active 478 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 474 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 473 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $289,990 Active 472 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 471 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $289,990 Active 470 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $289,990 Active 468 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 467 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 466 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 465 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 464 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $289,990 Active 463 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $289,990 Active 462 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 461 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $289,990 Active 460 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 459 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 458 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 457 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 456 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $289,990 Active 455 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $289,990 Active 454 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $289,990 Active 453 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 452 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 451 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 449 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 448 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 447 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 446 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 443 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 442 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 441 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 440 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 438 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 436 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 435 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 434 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,196
• − Property taxes: −$6,211
• − Insurance: −$2,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,571
• − Management: −$2,571
• − Depreciation: −$12,046
• Taxable loss: −$16,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,968
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Heartland TX is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a good location. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping improvements and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases home's appeal and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbara Walker El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

---

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $315,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $331,490 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $321,490 Zillow
• 2025-05-14 Listed $311,490 Zillow