10039 Creek Bluff Dr · Riverview, FL 33578

$247,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2004 5,500 sqft lot $51/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale. Property is a short sale. Wonderful community tucked away for the utmost privacy. No through roads! One-level living at its best. House receives ton of natural light and the rooms are well-proportioned. The primary bedroom as a long, deep walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with double vanity, shower, and tub. The other 2 bedrooms share a well-appointed bathroom. The garage has plenty of storage space. Enjoy large back yard patio with a privacy fence.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Natural light
• Privacy fence

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE BACK YARD PATIO
• PRIVACY FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-872/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summerfield Crossings Elementary School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 869 students, 53% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,200 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-50,958
• Equity at exit: $36,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-74,686
• Equity at exit: $21,356

Cash invested: $69,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33578

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,167/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $234,168

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $-3	+0% $-73	+5% $-143	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-159	+0% $-73	+5% $14	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $-10	base $-73	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,750
• Closing costs: $7,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12913 Brookcrest Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,160	$1.46	1d	1	0.03mi
9907 Hound Chase Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.5	1478	$2,200	$1.49	6d	1	0.22mi
12739 Lemon Pepper Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,989	$1.57	23d	1	0.28mi
12805 Avelar Manor Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,375	$1.30	25d	1	0.60mi
10334 Summerview Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1425	$2,180	$1.53	1d	1	0.62mi
10221 Summerview Cir Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,969	$1.33	26d	1	0.64mi
12820 Belvedere Song Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1513	$2,000	$1.32	26d	1	0.68mi
12915 Early Run Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,300	$1.38	6d	1	0.75mi
9814 Rustling Breeze Cir Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$2,783	$2.78	1d	35	0.81mi
10428 Orchid Mist Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1789	$2,035	$1.14	6d	1	0.90mi
10425 Red Carpet Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1688	$2,150	$1.27	22d	1	0.91mi
9960 Jonas Salk Dr Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$2,520	$2.39	1d	17	0.92mi
12514 Early Run Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,225	$1.20	26d	1	0.95mi
12961 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$1,890	$1.13	17d	1	0.99mi
10220 Summer Palm Dr Riverview, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1314	$2,096	$1.59	3d	19	1.01mi
12942 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,390	$1.43	1d	1	1.03mi
12942 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,350	$1.41	4d	1	1.03mi
12604 Montford Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1499	$1,950	$1.30	5d	1	1.10mi
10328 Soaring Eagle Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,395	$1.55	4d	1	1.11mi
10806 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1448	$1,650	$1.14	4d	1	1.13mi
10811 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,675	$1.19	19d	1	1.14mi
10811 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,675	$1.19	26d	1	1.14mi
12938 Fennway Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,000	$1.30	1d	1	1.14mi
12315 Foxmoor Peak Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1400	$1,800	$1.29	26d	1	1.22mi
12315 Foxmoor Peak Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1383	$1,700	$1.23	4d	1	1.22mi
10932 Keys Gate Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,750	$1.24	4d	1	1.23mi
12322 Foxmoor Peak Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$2,200	$1.58	26d	1	1.23mi
12327 Healey Summit Ln Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$1,750	$1.26	26d	1	1.24mi
12219 Dawn Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,200	$1.76	6d	1	1.25mi
10943 Keys Gate Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1532	$1,800	$1.17	4d	1	1.25mi
13114 Fennway Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1556	$2,245	$1.44	3d	1	1.30mi
12906 Trade Port Pl Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1532	$1,800	$1.17	26d	1	1.30mi
13130 Fennway Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1736	$2,219	$1.28	4d	1	1.35mi
12824 Kings Lake Dr Gibsonton, FL	4.0	3.0	1808	$2,500	$1.38	12d	1	1.36mi
12813 Kings Lake Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1391	$2,650	$1.91	26d	1	1.38mi
10553 Egret Haven Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,500	$1.64	14d	1	1.39mi
7002 Crown Lake Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,925	$1.41	0d	1	1.41mi
13049 Waterbourne Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,049	$1.26	4d	1	1.44mi
6944 Crown Lake Dr Gibsonton, FL	4.0	3.0	1809	$2,089	$1.15	18d	1	1.46mi
10401 Opus Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,095	$1.56	6d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $247,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $247,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $247,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $247,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-03-02
    listed $290,000 Active 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Short Sale. Property is a short sale. Wonderful community tucked away for the utmost privacy. No through roads! One-level living at its best. House receives ton of natural light and the rooms are well-proportioned. The primary bedroom as a long, deep walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with double vanity, shower, and tub. The other 2 bedrooms share a well-appointed bathroom. The garage has plenty of storage space. Enjoy large back yard patio with a privacy fence.

17. 2025-07-25
    price $297,897
18. 2025-06-16
    listed $300,000 Active
19. 2023-08-10
    soldstatus $320,000
20. 2023-08-02
    soldstatus $320,000 Closed
21. 2023-06-27
    status Pending
22. 2023-05-06
    listed $315,000 Active
23. 2021-07-23
    status Pending
24. 2021-07-23
    historical
25. 2021-07-16
    listed $250,000 Active
26. 2019-06-15
    soldstatus $191,500
27. 2019-06-07
    soldstatus $191,500 Sold
28. 2019-05-08
    status Pending
29. 2019-05-03
    listed $190,000 Active
30. 2005-07-12
    soldstatus $214,000
31. 2005-06-30
    soldstatus $214,000
32. 2005-05-20
    listed $215,900
33. 2005-02-03
    soldstatus $172,000
34. 2005-02-01
    soldstatus $172,000
35. 2004-12-09
    listed $179,000
36. 2004-06-16
    soldstatus $1,531,000
37. 2003-10-13
    soldstatus $818,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,167 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,167 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,836
• − Property taxes: −$4,167
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$7,185
• Taxable loss: −$5,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,210
• After-tax cash flow: $338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 60,651
• Household income: $85,921
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 23% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.42%
• Current HPI: 326.0368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-64.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $297,897 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-02 Sold (MLS) $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-06 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-16 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $191,500 Public Records
• 2019-06-07 Sold (MLS) $191,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-03 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $214,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-30 Sold (MLS) $214,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-20 Listed $215,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-01 Sold (MLS) $172,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-09 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,531,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $818,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,167 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.