1599 Flaxen Dr · Canandaigua, NY 14425

$224,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1978 6,473 sqft lot Est $305k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready, homey raised ranch with A TON of updates. New flooring throughout entire home, new kitchen counters, new doors, deck built and installed in 2014, hot water tank- new as of 2014, new gas furnace with forced air installed in 2015, new roof as of July 2018, updated bathroom vanity and fresh paint throughout home. Home is within walking distance of Farmbrook Park. All kitchen appliances included, electric stove is brand new. Delayed showings until open house on Saturday 10/17 from 2-5 pm.

Key facts

• Green space
• Open concept kitchen
• Flex area

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FLEX AREA
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• GREEN SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Aluminum siding exterior; Block foundation; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Irregular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 53 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Storage; Finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.4% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Canandaigua City School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #305 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $159k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $224,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.66%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1601 Flaxen Dr	0.01mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,468 (0%)	6mo	$255,000	$174	87
1564 Hayride Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-2%)	9mo	$300,000	$208	81
1568 Hayride Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,430 (-3%)	12mo	$300,000	$210	78
1169 Meadowbrook Ln	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,520 (+4%)	10mo	$260,000	$171	74
5778 Oatfield Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,424 (-3%)	12mo	$330,000	$232	74
5768 Oatfield Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,376 (-6%)	9mo	$300,000	$218	69
5773 Clover Meadow Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	10mo	$235,000	$175	68
1547 Meadowbrook Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,380 (-6%)	11mo	$290,000	$210	60
45 Coachlight Cir	0.33mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,560 (+6%)	9mo	$290,000	$186	59
5715 Dalton Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (-4%)	8mo	$240,000	$169	58
5738 Dalton Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,564 (+6%)	10mo	$239,900	$153	55
1731 Birchwood Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+8%)	10mo	$338,000	$213	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,067
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $38,421
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14425

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$374 /mo · $4,483/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,084

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1515 Red Fern Dr Unit 1512 Farmington, NY	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,800	$1.66	3d	1	0.47mi
1512 Redfern Dr Farmington, NY	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,800	$1.66	3d	1	0.48mi
1188 Barry Pl Farmington, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1072	$2,675	$2.50	3d	12	0.99mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $224,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,483 · $374/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,483 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$4,483
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,617
• − Management: −$2,617
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $2,730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$655
• After-tax cash flow: $5,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canandaigua City School District
• NCES district ID: 3606330
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,375
• Composite: 47.09/100
• National rank: #2335
• State rank: #305 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canandaigua

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 13,839
• Household income: $94,609
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 257.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.59%
• Current HPI: 267.0192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+171.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $224,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-29 Sold (MLS) $159,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-10-23 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-10-12 Listed $139,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-10-09 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2018-10-03 Listed $124,900 UNYREIS
• 2014-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-29 Sold (MLS) $95,000 UNYREIS
• 2014-01-30 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2003-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,483 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.