26 Gibson Rd · Silver Bay, MN 55614

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1954 7,666 sqft lot $143/sqft · at area comps Est $170k · 35% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the picturesque town of Silver Bay, Minnesota. Nestled among the scenic beauty of the North Shore, this property offers a unique opportunity for those looking to invest in a home that needs a little TLC. As you step inside, you’ll find a layout that features a spacious living area and a cozy kitchen. The two bedrooms provide ample space for relaxation, while the bathroom offers the essentials. With some renovation and personal touches, this home has the potential to become a delightful retreat or a cozy year-round residence. The property boasts a generous yard, perfect for outdoor activities and gatherings with family and

Key facts

• Cozy kitchen
• Generous yard
• Beautiful lakes

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• COZY KITCHEN
• GENEROUS YARD
• STUNNING HIKING TRAILS
• BEAUTIFUL LAKES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.176 acres with 115 x 71 dimensions and city street frontage
• Financial info: Conventional mortgage accepted

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with space for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One level; Accessibility features: other
• Construction: Block foundation; Built with block and frame materials
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Asphalt roof; Block and frame construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (one 15x11 on main level; one 11x11 on main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bath on main floor; One three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Breakfast area / eat-in kitchen; Full basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($502/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Silver Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#217 in MN, #4,547 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Superior Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 301 in MN (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,113 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.63%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,278
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -35.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
66 Banks Blvd	0.63mi	2/1.0	768 (0%)	4mo	$117,000	$152	68
51 Davis Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	3mo	$107,500	$124	56
88 Banks Blvd	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	0mo	$105,000	$122	54
11 Charles Crk	0.72mi	2/1.0	768 (0%)	23mo	$145,000	$189	47
12 Dodge Ln	0.41mi	2/1.0	864 (+12%)	18mo	$141,000	$163	45
10 Drake Cr Cir	0.44mi	2/1.0	864 (+12%)	23mo	$150,000	$174	40
31 Charles Cr Cir	0.59mi	2/1.0	864 (+12%)	18mo	$145,000	$168	36
33 Charles Crk	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	14mo	$145,000	$168	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $62,559
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $182,096
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55614

• Home prices YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $898

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $110,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $110,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $110,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-05-02
    listed $125,000 Active 1286-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$913
• − Management: −$913
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$328
• After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Superior Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2740740
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,958
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4399
• State rank: #191 of 301 in MN

Livability — Silver Bay

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #4547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Bay, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,450

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,943 people
• By 2030: 9,437 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 8,326 · -16.3%
• By 2050: 7,365 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 6,008 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 5,038 · -49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 21% Lithuanian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.1pp · 2024: 3.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.9 2020: D+3.5 2016: D+2.2 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+22.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.26%
• Current HPI: 490.17
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,042 · +191.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.