13015 Surf St · Drum Point, MD 20657

$399,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1977 0.33 ac lot $263/sqft · 9% above area Est $367k · 9% over $23/mo HOA ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Drum Point on the Chesapeake Bay Nestled in the serene community of Drum Point, this exquisite raised ranch home offers a harmonious blend of comfort and luxury, perfect for those seeking an elevated lifestyle. With 1,518 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this residence features four spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, ensuring ample room for relaxation and entertainment. Step inside to discover an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen and living areas, creating a warm atmosphere ideal for gatherings. The galley kitchen is equipped with high-end appliances, including a sleek stove, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher, and disposal, making meal preparation a delight. The combination of functionality and style is enhanced by the charming family room that flows effortlessly from the kitchen, perfect for cozy evenings or lively get-togethers. Natural light pours through the thoughtfully placed windows, accentuating the home's inviting ambiance. Ceiling fans throughout provide a gentle breeze, enhancing the comfort of each room. The entry-level bedroom offers convenience and accessibility, making it a versatile space for guests or a home office. Outside, the property boasts a generous 0.33-acre lot, providing ample space for outdoor activities or serene moments of reflection. Enjoy the tranquility of the nearby Chesapeake Bay, with water access just a stone's throw away. Whether you're kayaking, fishing, or simply soaking in the stunning views, this location offers a unique opportunity to embrace a water-oriented lifestyle. Additional features include a convenient laundry area with a washer and dryer, ensuring that daily chores are a breeze. The property also includes a shed for extra storage, keeping your outdoor space organized and clutter-free. With a driveway that accommodates up to three vehicles, parking is never a concern. This home is not just a residence; it's a lifestyle choice that invites you to experience the beauty of waterfront living while enjoying the comforts of a well-appointed home. Embrace the charm of Drum Point and make this luxurious retreat your own. This is Chesapeake living at its finest — come home to the water.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Galley kitchen
• Laundry area

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• 0.33-ACRE LOT
• WATER ACCESS
• LAUNDRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $388k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#286 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,097/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 136% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,951 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.23%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,668
• List price: $399,950
• Delta: 9.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12948 Cree Dr	0.12mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,560 (+3%)	2mo	$315,000	$202	81
12946 Mohawk Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,514 (-0%)	18mo	$345,000	$228	71
426 Seagull Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+3%)	2mo	$245,000	$157	70
12987 Holly Way	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-8%)	3mo	$405,000	$288	68
12940 Huron Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	10mo	$353,500	$245	68
13014 Barreda Blvd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-1%)	15mo	$345,000	$229	62
12805 Bay Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-1%)	0mo	$397,500	$265	62
480 Lake Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (+5%)	5mo	$370,000	$231	61
339 Gray Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,560 (+3%)	11mo	$395,500	$254	61
460 Deer Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-8%)	7mo	$388,000	$277	60
12948 Huron Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-13%)	6mo	$359,900	$272	54
406 Lake Dr	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,575 (+4%)	19mo	$355,000	$225	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $22,171
• Equity at exit: $59,634

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $131,344
• Equity at exit: $34,580

Cash invested: $111,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20657

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,820/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,070
• Net cashflow: $1,365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,368

Max offer price $399,950

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,988
• Closing costs: $11,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12995 Barreda Blvd Unit 1520893P Lusby, MD	4.0	3.0	1991	$8,400	$4.22	22d	1	0.42mi
12627 Hilltop Rd Lusby, MD	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,400	$2.17	16d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,950 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,950 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,950 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,950 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,950 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,950 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,950 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,950 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,950 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,950 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,950 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,950 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,950 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    price $430,000 2225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2225 chars)

    Drum Point on the Chesapeake Bay Nestled in the serene community of Drum Point, this exquisite raised ranch home offers a harmonious blend of comfort and luxury, perfect for those seeking an elevated lifestyle. With 1,518 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this residence features four spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, ensuring ample room for relaxation and entertainment. Step inside to discover an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen and living areas, creating a warm atmosphere ideal for gatherings. The galley kitchen is equipped with high-end appliances, including a sleek stove, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher, and disposal, making meal preparation a delight. The combination of functionality and style is enhanced by the charming family room that flows effortlessly from the kitchen, perfect for cozy evenings or lively get-togethers. Natural light pours through the thoughtfully placed windows, accentuating the home's inviting ambiance. Ceiling fans throughout provide a gentle breeze, enhancing the comfort of each room. The entry-level bedroom offers convenience and accessibility, making it a versatile space for guests or a home office. Outside, the property boasts a generous 0.33-acre lot, providing ample space for outdoor activities or serene moments of reflection. Enjoy the tranquility of the nearby Chesapeake Bay, with water access just a stone's throw away. Whether you're kayaking, fishing, or simply soaking in the stunning views, this location offers a unique opportunity to embrace a water-oriented lifestyle. Additional features include a convenient laundry area with a washer and dryer, ensuring that daily chores are a breeze. The property also includes a shed for extra storage, keeping your outdoor space organized and clutter-free. With a driveway that accommodates up to three vehicles, parking is never a concern. This home is not just a residence; it's a lifestyle choice that invites you to experience the beauty of waterfront living while enjoying the comforts of a well-appointed home. Embrace the charm of Drum Point and make this luxurious retreat your own. This is Chesapeake living at its finest — come home to the water.

15. 2026-04-22
    listed $460,000 Active 2225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2225 chars)

    Drum Point on the Chesapeake Bay Nestled in the serene community of Drum Point, this exquisite raised ranch home offers a harmonious blend of comfort and luxury, perfect for those seeking an elevated lifestyle. With 1,518 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this residence features four spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, ensuring ample room for relaxation and entertainment. Step inside to discover an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen and living areas, creating a warm atmosphere ideal for gatherings. The galley kitchen is equipped with high-end appliances, including a sleek stove, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher, and disposal, making meal preparation a delight. The combination of functionality and style is enhanced by the charming family room that flows effortlessly from the kitchen, perfect for cozy evenings or lively get-togethers. Natural light pours through the thoughtfully placed windows, accentuating the home's inviting ambiance. Ceiling fans throughout provide a gentle breeze, enhancing the comfort of each room. The entry-level bedroom offers convenience and accessibility, making it a versatile space for guests or a home office. Outside, the property boasts a generous 0.33-acre lot, providing ample space for outdoor activities or serene moments of reflection. Enjoy the tranquility of the nearby Chesapeake Bay, with water access just a stone's throw away. Whether you're kayaking, fishing, or simply soaking in the stunning views, this location offers a unique opportunity to embrace a water-oriented lifestyle. Additional features include a convenient laundry area with a washer and dryer, ensuring that daily chores are a breeze. The property also includes a shed for extra storage, keeping your outdoor space organized and clutter-free. With a driveway that accommodates up to three vehicles, parking is never a concern. This home is not just a residence; it's a lifestyle choice that invites you to experience the beauty of waterfront living while enjoying the comforts of a well-appointed home. Embrace the charm of Drum Point and make this luxurious retreat your own. This is Chesapeake living at its finest — come home to the water.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,820 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,090 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: +$270/yr (+$22/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,403
• − Property taxes: −$3,820
• − Insurance: −$2,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,893
• − Management: −$4,893
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$11,635
• Taxable income: $10,574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,538
• After-tax cash flow: $13,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calvert County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400150
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $94,392
• Composite: 33.27/100
• National rank: #5511
• State rank: #5 of 24 in MD

Livability — Drum Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #14756

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Drum Point, MD
• County: Calvert County · 33,451 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 20,699
• Household income: $115,748
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 136.0

Population outlook (Calvert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,825 people
• By 2030: 96,197 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 96,954 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 94,628 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 91,576 · -3.4%
• By 2100: 83,431 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calvert

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.5% · R 54.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+18.4 2012: R+8.2 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.88%
• Current HPI: 274.4909
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $430,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $460,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,820 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.