10 Ryker Ln · Palm Coast, FL 32164

$319,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · Land · 381 Days on market

Built 2025 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The SYLVESTER floor plan has four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a three car garage, and 1,806 square feet of living space. The great room is spacious and accommodating. A beautiful walk-around island is conveniently located between the great room and the kitchen making it a gathering place for both rooms. Three bedrooms are on one side of the home and the owner's suite is on the other side. This new home includes one full year of builder's transferable warranty coverage and a 10-year limited structural warranty.

Key facts

• Walk-around island
• Great room
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• WALK-AROUND ISLAND
• GREAT ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Lot size approximately 0.23 acre

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; One story; Northwest facing; Entry on one level
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built by Holiday Builders (model: SYLVESTER); Slab foundation; Completed condition; Built under builder license CGC058770
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan with kitchen/family room combo; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1367 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $320k implies a 392% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,667 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-67,568
• Equity at exit: $47,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-89,922
• Equity at exit: $27,667

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32164

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1367
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,000/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,398

Max offer price $287,658

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-92	+0% $-183	+5% $-274	+10% $-364
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-269	+0% $-183	+5% $-97	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-102	base $-183	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,998
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Rykill Way Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,066	$1.14	3d	1	0.07mi
33 Rybark Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1980	$1,850	$0.93	24d	1	0.22mi
11 Ripcord Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,925	$1.28	3d	1	0.35mi
5 Rambling Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,850	$1.37	15d	1	0.42mi
64 Ramblewood Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,976	$0.98	22d	1	0.46mi
41 Raemoor Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	1836	$1,995	$1.09	3d	1	0.49mi
23 Ridley Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,850	$1.20	24d	1	0.52mi
15 Raeland Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1891	$799	$0.42	24d	1	0.56mi
9 Riddle Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1833	$1,769	$0.97	3d	1	0.61mi
121 Raintree Cir Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1939	$1,900	$0.98	15d	1	0.62mi
37 Rickenbacker Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,750	$1.20	3d	1	0.63mi
23 Richmond Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	24d	1	0.72mi
2 Riverina Dr Palm Coast, FL	5.0	3.0	1984	$2,139	$1.08	3d	1	0.82mi
75 Raleigh Dr Palm Coast, FL	5.0	3.0	2000	$2,350	$1.18	19d	1	0.85mi
131 Rae Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,150	$1.24	3d	1	0.88mi
4 Ritchie Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1970	$2,216	$1.12	3d	1	0.90mi
9 Richard Pl Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1517	$2,073	$1.37	19d	1	0.93mi
18 Red Clover Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1660	$1,900	$1.14	24d	1	1.01mi
9 White Hawk Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,900	$1.18	3d	1	1.03mi
87 Rose Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2262	$1,925	$0.85	15d	1	1.05mi
87 Rose Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2262	$1,925	$0.85	12d	1	1.05mi
65 Raintree Pl Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,600	$0.94	24d	1	1.06mi
6 Rosedale Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,900	$1.42	24d	1	1.07mi
19 Rosecroft Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1719	$1,979	$1.15	22d	1	1.08mi
13 Elder Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	2012	$5,500	$2.73	24d	1	1.08mi
13 Elder Dr Unit 1261619P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	1991	$5,699	$2.86	12d	1	1.08mi
91 Rolling Sands Dr Unit B Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	24d	1	1.08mi
11 Wheatfield Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	2242	$2,195	$0.98	24d	1	1.10mi
20 Reynolds Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	1.11mi
12 Reynolds Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,000	$1.27	15d	1	1.12mi
113 Whippoorwill Dr Unit NA Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,100	$1.33	24d	1	1.12mi
15 Renshaw Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.5	2056	$2,100	$1.02	24d	1	1.14mi
11 Roxton Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,949	$1.21	24d	1	1.15mi
69 Rose Dr Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,650	$1.24	24d	1	1.15mi
35 Edge Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,395	$1.60	3d	1	1.16mi
5 Pine Haven Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,850	$1.13	15d	1	1.18mi
36 Reidsville Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,150	$1.08	12d	1	1.20mi
12 Regency Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1771	$1,995	$1.13	3d	1	1.20mi
11 Wheeler Ln Unit 1261594P Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	2497	$5,248	$2.10	3d	1	1.21mi
20 Empress Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2256	$2,100	$0.93	24d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   price $319,990
3. 2026-03-08
   price $326,990
4. 2025-08-08
   price $329,990
5. 2025-05-02
   listed $339,990 Active
6. 2024-05-30
   soldstatus $65,000
7. 2024-05-02
   soldstatus $51,000
8. 1997-02-21
   soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,656/yr (+$138/mo · 165.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,924
• − Property taxes: −$1,000
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,918
• After-tax cash flow: $-278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,658
• Household income: $76,399
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.89%
• Current HPI: 297.4942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2947.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $319,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $326,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $329,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Listed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1997-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,000 · +24.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.