52 Woodbury Rd · Farmingville, NY 11738

$539,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1964 0.48 ac lot Est $632k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This one won't wait, and neither should you. Tucked at the quiet end of a sought-after cul-de-sac, this home sits on a private . 48-acre parcel backing a recharge basin, no rear neighbors, just total seclusion. The fully fenced yard is lushly landscaped with specimen mature plantings that create a natural privacy screen money simply can't replicate overnight. And when you're ready to re-enter the world? You're closer than you think. .. convenient to the LIRR, all major highways, shopping, dining, beaches, and parks. The best of both worlds: a private retreat with everything Long Island has to offer right at your doorstep. This is the kind of setting you stumble onto and don't let go of. Rea

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Landscaped property
• Private parcel

Tags

• PRIVATE PARCEL
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• MATURE PLANTINGS
• PAVER PATIO
• IN-GROUND POOL
• LANDSCAPED PROPERTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Cedar and frame construction; Block foundation; Has private pool
• Exterior features: Back yard; Cul-de-sac lot; Partially wooded; Private setting; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating with baseboard units; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Storage space; Washer/dryer hookup; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $513k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $494k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $494k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Farmingville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#592 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waverly Avenue School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 463 students, 26% FRL); Sagamore Middle School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade C, #259 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 933 students, 30% FRL); Sachem High School East (math 94% / reading 93%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 2,082 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($531k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $493,695 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $632,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1141 Waverly Ave	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,303 (+3%)	5mo	$640,000	$491	74
44 Lowell Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,261 (-0%)	7mo	$568,500	$451	67
111 Cedar Oaks Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,371 (+8%)	5mo	$630,000	$460	61
541 Blue Point Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,113 (-12%)	6mo	$485,000	$436	59
15 Spurwoods Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+4%)	6mo	$635,000	$481	58
1034 Waverly Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,210 (-4%)	8mo	$625,000	$517	56
7 Albermarle Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-3%)	6mo	$700,000	$572	53
7 Hempstead St	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,352 (+7%)	8mo	$695,000	$514	51
18 Pommer Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-4%)	13mo	$560,000	$459	50
4 Division St	0.21mi	3/3.0	1,090 (-14%)	14mo	$665,000	$610	48
613 Blue Point Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-14%)	9mo	$625,000	$572	31
261 Lidge Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,100 (-13%)	10mo	$550,000	$500	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-96,460
• Equity at exit: $80,367

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-94,980
• Equity at exit: $46,603

Cash invested: $150,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11738

• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax from tax record: −$996 /mo · $11,958/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,037
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,124

Max offer price $512,951

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $5	+0% $-147	+5% $-300	+10% $-453
Rent	-10% $-537	-5% $-342	+0% $-147	+5% $48	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $-10	base $-147	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,750
• Closing costs: $16,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Maple Ln Farmingville, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$5,788	$3.10	0d	14	0.15mi
2 Victorian Ct Holtsville, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$3,295	$3.18	7d	1	1.07mi
73 Cherry Ave Holtsville, NY	3.0	2.0	1452	$3,400	$2.34	0d	1	1.09mi
287 Cassa Loop Unit 287 Holtsville, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,295	$3.00	45d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $539,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,958 · $996/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,958 · $996/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,192
• − Property taxes: −$11,958
• − Insurance: −$2,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,739
• − Management: −$4,739
• − Depreciation: −$15,680
• Taxable loss: −$10,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,583
• After-tax cash flow: $813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Farmingville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #10732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmingville, NY
• City population: 20,246
• Population (ZIP): 20,246

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -605.51%
• Current HPI: 364.6287
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $539,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,958 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.