407 S Bismark St · Concordia, MO 64020

$85,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1909 0.30 ac lot $48/sqft · 59% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision and unlock the potential in this spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bath, two-story home. Featuring a functional floor plan with key living spaces on the main level. Interior highlights include charming wood accents and generously sized rooms throughout. This home sits on a great lot and includes a 2-car detached garage, providing added storage and convenience. Priced accordingly for the updates and improvements needed, this is an excellent opportunity to build equity and restore this home to its former glory. Located in the heart of Concordia, a welcoming small town known for its strong sense of community, historic charm, and local events. Residents enjoy a relaxed pace of life while still having access to nearby amenities and larger metro areas.

Key facts

• Great lot
• Wood accents
• Historic charm

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD ACCENTS
• GREAT LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• HISTORIC CHARM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#207 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Concordia R-II (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #109 of 324 in MO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $85k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.49%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,948
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -58.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 S Leona St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-3%)	1mo	$225,000	$130	76
201 W 1st St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-4%)	4mo	$199,900	$118	67
105 S West St	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,653 (-7%)	10mo	$250,000	$151	56
1005 S Main St	0.48mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+4%)	14mo	$254,000	$137	50
808 SW 3rd St	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,030 (+14%)	5mo	$192,500	$95	47
1010 S Saint Louis St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (-4%)	16mo	$195,000	$115	46
311 SW 12th Ter	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,563 (-12%)	11mo	$204,900	$131	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $86,079
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.34×
• Total profit: $222,218
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64020

• Home prices YoY: 22.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $709

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $673	-5% $649	+0% $625	+5% $601	+10% $576
Rent	-10% $506	-5% $565	+0% $625	+5% $684	+10% $743
Rate	-1.0pp $667	-0.5pp $646	base $625	+0.5pp $603	+1.0pp $580

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
503 S Bismark St Concordia, MO	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,500	$0.94	44d	1	0.05mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   status $85,000 Pending 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    listed $85,000 Active 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Bring your vision and unlock the potential in this spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bath, two-story home. Featuring a functional floor plan with key living spaces on the main level. Interior highlights include charming wood accents and generously sized rooms throughout. This home sits on a great lot and includes a 2-car detached garage, providing added storage and convenience. Priced accordingly for the updates and improvements needed, this is an excellent opportunity to build equity and restore this home to its former glory. Located in the heart of Concordia, a welcoming small town known for its strong sense of community, historic charm, and local events. Residents enjoy a relaxed pace of life while still having access to nearby amenities and larger metro areas.

15. 2009-11-06
    soldstatus $53,500
16. 2008-01-26
    soldstatus
17. 1999-03-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,562
• After-tax cash flow: $5,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concordia R-II
• NCES district ID: 2910080
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,584
• Composite: 36.98/100
• National rank: #4527
• State rank: #109 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concordia

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #10455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concordia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,928

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.33%
• Current HPI: 277.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+58.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $85,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records
• 2008-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.