643 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #303 · Ocean Shores, WA
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
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- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
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Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Schools +3.4/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$44,000
643 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #303 · Ocean Shores, WA 98569
1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Townhouse
Built 1966
$65/sqft
· 20% below area
Est $55k · 20% under
↓ 9% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
TOP FLOOR OCEAN/DUNES Front/View HOTEL Condo! Located on the 3rd-floor #303 in the Canterbury Inn in downtown Ocean Shores. Relax in this light and bright Condo, beautifully Fully-Furnished, 1 BD, 1 BA, 672sf. Comfortable Living Room with Propane Fireplace and a Private Deck overlooking the Dunes and Ocean. Fully-equipped Kitchen with Eating Bar, Stainless Steel appliances, dishes, etc. Bedroom with Ocean views and 2 queen beds. Ran as a Hotel, so NO HOA Dues. Owners can stay up to 2 WEEKS/YEAR + up to 2-4 additional days. Service Fee = $20/night-stayed.
Key facts
- Private deck
- Hot tub
- Exercise room
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $44k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
- Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 3.2% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
- North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Ocean Shores Elementary (240 students, 76% FRL); North Beach Junior High School (162 students, 78% FRL); North Beach Senior High School (177 students, 63% FRL).
- Market conditions: 875 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer
$44,000
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.60% ✓
- Cap rate
- 22.64%
- Cash-on-cash
- 58.38%
- DSCR
- 3.60
- GRM
- 3.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $55,280
- List price
- $44,000
- Delta
- -20.40%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 615 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #319 | 0.07mi | 1/1.0 | 672 (0%) | 7mo | $35,000 | $52 | 91 |
| 615 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #307 | 0.07mi | 1/1.0 | 672 (0%) | 11mo | $23,000 | $34 | 87 |
| 615 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #315 | 0.07mi | 1/1.0 | 672 (0%) | 12mo | $35,000 | $52 | 87 |
| 615 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #115 | 0.07mi | 1/1.0 | 672 (0%) | 12mo | $22,000 | $33 | 87 |
| 615 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #211 | 0.07mi | 1/1.0 | 672 (0%) | 12mo | $20,000 | $30 | 87 |
| 615 Ocean Shores Blvd NW Unit 215B | 0.07mi | 1/1.0 | 672 (0%) | 13mo | $24,000 | $36 | 86 |
| 615 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #213 | 0.07mi | 1/1.0 | 672 (0%) | 14mo | $25,000 | $37 | 85 |
| 615 Ocean Shores Blvd #306 | 0.07mi | 1/1.0 | 672 (0%) | 19mo | $25,000 | $37 | 81 |
| 759 Ocean Shores Blvd NW Unit K | 0.44mi | 1/1.0 | 700 (+4%) | 7mo | $163,000 | $233 | 67 |
| 759 Ocean Shores Blvd NW Unit G | 0.44mi | 1/1.0 | 700 (+4%) | 8mo | $125,000 | $179 | 66 |
| 759 Ocean Shores Blvd NW Unit H | 0.44mi | 1/1.0 | 600 (-11%) | 6mo | $127,500 | $213 | 57 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 57.0%
- Equity multiple
- 3.52×
- Total profit
- $31,064
- Equity at exit
- $6,561
10-year hold
- IRR
- 61.9%
- Equity multiple
- 7.19×
- Total profit
- $76,279
- Equity at exit
- $3,804
Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 28 Tenant-Leaning
- State Washington
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 9 active · 2 under contract
- Months of supply
- 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $140,000 ($270/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 280 d
- This list price
- 22% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -69.5% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 98569
- Home prices YoY
- -3.4%
- Active inventory
- 875
- Price-to-rent
- 3.2×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,144 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$231
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$55 /mo · $660/yr
- Insurance
- −$18
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$240
- Net cashflow
- $599
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$385
Max offer price
$44,000
Occupancy floor
43%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $630 | -5% $615 | +0% $599 | +5% $584 | +10% $569 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $509 | -5% $554 | +0% $599 | +5% $645 | +10% $690 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $622 | -0.5pp $611 | base $599 | +0.5pp $588 | +1.0pp $576 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $11,000
- Closing costs
- $1,320
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 3 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 672 Ocean Shores Blvd NW Ocean Shores, WA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,150 | $1.64 | 139d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 165 Barnacle St Unit 503 Ocean Shores, WA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 725 | $950 | $1.31 | 139d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 165 Barnacle St Unit 503 Ocean Shores, WA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 500 | $895 | $1.79 | 1d | 1 | 0.54mi |
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $44,000 Active
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2026-09-20days on market $44,000 Active 307 DOM
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2026-09-19days on market $44,000 Active 306 DOM
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2026-09-18days on market $44,000 Active 305 DOM
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2026-09-17days on market $44,000 Active 304 DOM
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2026-09-16days on market $44,000 Active 303 DOM
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2026-09-15days on market $44,000 Active 302 DOM
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2026-09-14days on market $44,000 Active 301 DOM
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2026-09-13days on market $44,000 Active 300 DOM
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2026-09-12days on market $44,000 Active 299 DOM
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2026-09-11days on market $44,000 Active 298 DOM
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2026-09-05days on market $44,000 Active 292 DOM
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2026-09-04days on market $44,000 Active 291 DOM
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2026-09-03days on market $44,000 Active 290 DOM
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2026-09-02days on market $44,000 Active 289 DOM
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2026-08-30days on market $44,000 Active 286 DOM
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2026-08-29days on market $44,000 Active 285 DOM
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2026-08-28days on market $44,000 Active 284 DOM
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2026-08-27days on market $44,000 Active 283 DOM
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2026-08-25days on market $44,000 Active 281 DOM
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2026-08-24days on market $44,000 Active 280 DOM
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2026-08-23days on market $44,000 Active 279 DOM
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2026-08-22days on market $44,000 Active 278 DOM
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2026-08-21days on market $44,000 Active 277 DOM
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2026-08-20days on market $44,000 Active 276 DOM
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2026-08-19days on market $44,000 Active 275 DOM
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2026-08-18days on market $44,000 Active 274 DOM
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2026-08-17days on market $44,000 Active 273 DOM
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2026-08-16days on market $44,000 Active 272 DOM
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2026-08-15days on market $44,000 Active 271 DOM
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2026-08-14days on market $44,000 Active 270 DOM
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2026-08-13days on market $44,000 Active 269 DOM
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2026-08-12days on market $44,000 Active 268 DOM
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2026-08-11days on market $44,000 Active 267 DOM
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2026-08-10days on market $44,000 Active 266 DOM
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2026-08-09days on market $44,000 Active 265 DOM
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2026-08-08days on market $44,000 Active 264 DOM
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2026-08-07pricedays on market $44,000 Active 263 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $50,000 Active 262 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $50,000 Active 261 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $50,000 Active 260 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $50,000 Active 259 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $50,000 Active 256 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $50,000 Active 255 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $50,000 Active 254 DOM
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2026-07-27days on market $50,000 Active 252 DOM
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2026-07-25days on market $50,000 Active 250 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $50,000 Active 248 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $50,000 Active 247 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $50,000 Active 246 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $13,724
- − Mortgage interest
- −$2,465
- − Property taxes
- −$660
- − Insurance
- −$220
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,098
- − Management
- −$1,098
- − Depreciation
- −$1,280
- Taxable income
- $6,903
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,657
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,536/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $3,360–$10,080 screening
This well-maintained, fully-furnished condo is located on the 3rd floor with ocean and dunes views. It is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed for increased resale and rental value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
- Both Replace the carpet in the living area — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Ocean Shores Elementary
Middle
North Beach Junior High School
High
North Beach Senior High School
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- North Beach School District
- NCES district ID
- 5305700
- Math proficiency
- 32% ▼ -4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 44% ▬ 0.00%
- Median HH income
- $40,966
- Composite
- 34.46/100
- National rank
- #10153
- State rank
- #236 of 291 in WA
C
Composite livability gradescore 62/100
Livability — Ocean Shores
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #424
- US rank
- #16852
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living C+
Crime C-
Employment C
Housing A
Health & safety C-
User ratings A-
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Ocean Shores, WA
- County
- Grays Harbor County · 66,443 people
- City population
- 7,187
- Metro
- Aberdeen, WA
- Population (ZIP)
- 7,489
- Household income
- $58,378
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 7% of renters
Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 66,443 people
- By 2030
- 63,255 · -4.8%
- By 2040
- 56,466 · -15.0%
- By 2050
- 50,516 · -24.0%
- By 2075
- 39,296 · -40.9%
- By 2100
- 31,142 · -53.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (86%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor
- 2024 margin
- Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -13.33%
- Current HPI
- 380.05
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Aberdeen, WA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.65%
- F500 in state
- 22
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 2 | $269B |
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| Technology / Retail | 1 | $638B |
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| Technology | 1 | $245B |
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| Telecommunications | 1 | $38B |
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| Food / Beverage | 1 | $36B |
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| Automotive / Trucks | 1 | $34B |
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Price history
-9.1% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-25 Price Changed $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-17 Listed $55,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…