213 Lake Shore Dr · Walker Valley, NY 12566

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1930 0.88 ac lot Est $250k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Attention Builders, Contractors & Investors ~ This small cottage offers a rare opportunity to create something truly special. Full of potential, the property is ready for a Complete Renovation—making it the perfect blank canvas for investors, builders, or anyone with a vision. Set on almost a full Acre ( . 883 Acre) pretty lot with approx 204' Road fFrontage, with a beautiful open side yard and wooded section in the rear. The cottage retains hints of its original charm, waiting to be restored or reimagined entirely. Whether you’re designing a cozy country retreat, a modern minimalist escape, or a profitable renovation project, this property provides the foundation to bring

Key facts

• 0.88 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (NYSEG); Septic tank; See remarks regarding utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Cleared lot; Level lot; Partially wooded; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: One-level home (bedrooms on the main floor)
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No cooling; No standard heating listed (other heating noted)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 1.8% in Walker Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#517 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Bush Elementary School (math 12% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,771 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 649 students, 53% FRL); Crispell Middle School (math 17% / reading 46%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 633 students, 52% FRL); Pine Bush Senior High School (math 92% / reading 67%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,615 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 29% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $139k implies a 1753% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.40%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,872
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Lake Shore Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0	624 (-3%)	23mo	$242,000	$388	59
3 Hill Top Ln	0.34mi	2/1.0	720 (+12%)	13mo	$250,000	$347	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $95,699
• Equity at exit: $106,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.41×
• Total profit: $249,518
• Equity at exit: $210,801

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12566

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,355/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,244

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
171 Lake Shore Dr Pine Bush, NY	2.0	1.0	654	$2,000	$3.06	43d	1	0.08mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $139,000 Active
3. 2026-04-17
   historical $139,000
4. 1987-01-28
   soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,355 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,355 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,355
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $5,280
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,267
• After-tax cash flow: $5,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Walker Valley

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #9174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,718

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Current HPI: 329.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1753.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,355 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.