91 Bay Rd · Fox Lake, IL 60020

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1948 7,187 sqft lot Est $190k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 2-bedroom ranch in the heart of Fox Lake offering a practical layout and a newer detached 2-car garage in EXCELLENT condition. The home is designed with easy and comfortable living spaces, a large back deck, and a spacious yard shaded by mature trees with room for gardening, outdoor entertaining, or everyday use. Located just blocks from boat access to Pistakee Lake and the Fox Chain-O-Lakes, providing convenient gateway to boating, fishing, and year-round outdoor recreation. Close to downtown Fox Lake, the Metra station, and Route 12, this home offers a combination of recreational access and everyday convenience that is increasingly difficult to find at this price point.

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.0% in Fox Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#247 in IL, #4,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety F.
• Grant Chsd 124 (suburban): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #296 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grant Community High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #247 of 693 statewide, top 36%, 1,837 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $175k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,891 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,696
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Cross St	0.09mi	2/1.0	720 (-6%)	3mo	$182,000	$253	83
42 Fairfax Rd	0.12mi	2/1.0	804 (+5%)	17mo	$160,000	$199	73
105 Manor Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0	802 (+4%)	23mo	$158,000	$197	69
17 Arlington Rd	0.11mi	2/1.0	872 (+14%)	7mo	$110,000	$126	66
143 Eagle Point Rd	0.20mi	2/1.0	866 (+13%)	11mo	$155,000	$179	61
43 Fairfax Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0	834 (+9%)	20mo	$220,000	$264	59
14 Arlington Ln	0.40mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-6%)	14mo	$177,777	$247	54
126 Glenview Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	832 (+8%)	12mo	$245,000	$294	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,980
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,182
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60020

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,362

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
163 Eagle Point Rd Unit 1 Fox Lake, IL	2.0	1.0	685	$1,395	$2.04	1d	1	0.29mi
22 W Grand Ave Fox Lake, IL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,700	$2.33	43d	1	0.50mi
22 W Grand Ave Fox Lake, IL	2.0	1.0	656	$1,700	$2.59	1d	1	0.50mi
87 Maude Ave Unit B Fox Lake, IL	2.0	1.5	1092	$1,700	$1.56	15d	1	1.15mi
139 Cora Ave Unit 1374790P Fox Lake, IL	1.0	1.0	699	$2,400	$3.43	5d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $175,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 694-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active (Private) 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active (Private) 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active (Private) 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active (Private) 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $175,000 Active (Private) 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,498 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,474/yr (+$123/mo · 143.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$41
• After-tax cash flow: $2,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grant Chsd 124
• NCES district ID: 1717340
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,450
• Composite: 22.95/100
• National rank: #7989
• State rank: #296 of 620 in IL

Livability — Fox Lake

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #4462

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fox Lake, IL
• City population: 10,846
• Population (ZIP): 10,846

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 700,217 people
• By 2030: 693,290 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 673,588 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 643,556 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 562,792 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 457,715 · -34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.19%
• Current HPI: 219.6301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+302.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Coming Soon $175,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1984-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,450 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,024 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.