6405 N 169 St · Omaha, NE 68116

$413,700

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,153 sqft · Other

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Grayson EXP by Celebrity Homes. This Open Design begins with a large Gathering Room shared with a spacious Eat-In Island Kitchen and Dining Area.   The raised ceilings of the main level give the feeling of even more space.   As you enter the Grayson a Home Study is near the foyer.  The placement is intended to allow for privacy and quiet.   Another added benefit… The Upper-Level Laundry Room.   The Owner’s Suite is appointed with a walk-in closet, ¾ Privacy Bath Design with a Dual Vanity.  Features of this 4 Bedroom, 3 Bath Home Include:  3 Car Garage with a Garage Door Openers, Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer Package, Quartz

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $414k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Omaha — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#7 in NE, #663 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Bennington Public Schools (rural): math 67% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #3 of 111 in NE (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Anchor Pointe Elementary (math 65% / reading 71%, grade B+, #63 of 502 statewide, top 12%, 475 students, 8% FRL); Bennington Middle School (math 64% / reading 63%, grade B+, #13 of 128 statewide, top 10%, 410 students, 19% FRL); Bennington High School (math 66% / reading 70%, grade B, #21 of 261 statewide, top 8%, 1,002 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,539 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (2,583 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $278,839 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-82,994
• Equity at exit: $61,684

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-97,000
• Equity at exit: $35,769

Cash invested: $115,836 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68116

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,788 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,169
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $934/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,076

Max offer price $373,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-110	+0% $-227	+5% $-344	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-447	-5% $-337	+0% $-227	+5% $-117	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-122	base $-227	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,425
• Closing costs: $12,411
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7308 N 167th Ave Bennington, NE	4.0	3.0	2213	$3,000	$1.36	3d	1	0.57mi
6220 N 160th Ave Omaha, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1137	$2,690	$2.36	3d	13	0.76mi
16333 Potter St Bennington, NE	3.0	2.0	1618	$3,200	$1.98	3d	1	0.88mi
17214 Meredith Ave Unit LO Omaha, NE	4.0	3.0	2605	$3,100	$1.19	3d	1	1.20mi
5903 N 183rd St Elkhorn, NE	4.0	3.0	2741	$2,800	$1.02	25d	1	1.22mi
4309 N 175th Ave Omaha, NE	4.0	3.0	2970	$2,995	$1.01	25d	1	1.39mi
4113 N 170th St Omaha, NE	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,150	$1.46	45d	1	1.41mi
17451 Tucker St Bennington, NE	3.0	3.5	2442	$3,100	$1.27	25d	1	1.44mi
15702 Fowler Plz Omaha, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	981	$2,505	$2.55	3d	25	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-10-07
   listed $413,700
2. 2025-10-07
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $934 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,157 · $596/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,223/yr (+$519/mo · 666.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,174
• − Property taxes: −$934
• − Insurance: −$2,068
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,677
• − Management: −$2,677
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$12,035
• Taxable loss: −$10,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,454
• After-tax cash flow: $-269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bennington Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3103990
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $87,771
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #843
• State rank: #3 of 111 in NE

Livability — Omaha

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #663

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Douglas County · 538,646 people
• City population: 552,986
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• Population (ZIP): 34,501
• Household income: $121,165
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 625,245 people
• By 2030: 661,613 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 732,395 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 801,988 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 968,637 · +54.9%
• By 2100: 1,101,871 · +76.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: D (+10.2) · D 54.4% · R 44.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.5pp toward D · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: 10.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.2 2020: D+11.3 2016: D+1.4 2012: R+4.3 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.81%
• Current HPI: 223.573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $413,700 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $934 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.